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Fluctuations internationales et dynamique du taux de change

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  • Thepthida Sopraseuth
  • Jean-Olivier Hairault

Abstract

[fre] Cet article propose une revue de la littérature des MEGIS en économie ouverte. Le MEGIS international de base est incapable de rendre compte de la synchronisation cyclique des PIB observée dans les données, de la faible corrélation croisée des consommations et des fortes variations du taux de change. Ces énigmes empiriques ont donné lieu à une suite d’enrichissements théoriques visant à rendre ces modèles plus conformes aux données. La contribution d’Obstfeld et Rogoff (1995) s’impose comme un modèle de référence car offrant des fondements microéconomiques à une cadre keynésien en économie ouverte. Les travaux récents tentent de dépasser le modèle néo-keynésien en intégrant des éléments provenant des théories du commerce international ou de choix de portefeuille. [eng] This article offers a review of the literature on intertemporal stochastic general equilibrium (ISGE) models in an open economy. The basic international ISGE model cannot describe the cyclical synchronization of GDPs observed in the data , the weak cross-correlation of consumption aggregates, or the sharp swings in the exchange rate. These empirical enigmas have fostered a series of theoretical enhancements to make the models more consistent with the data. The contribution by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) is unquestionably a reference model, as it offers a microeconomic foundation for an open-economy Keynesian framework. Recent studies have attempted to go beyond the neo-Keynesian model by incorporating elements from international-trade and portfolio-choice theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Thepthida Sopraseuth & Jean-Olivier Hairault, 2008. "Fluctuations internationales et dynamique du taux de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 65-91.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_183_2_7806
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7806
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7806
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