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Fluctuations Internationales et Dynamique du Taux de Change

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  • Jean-Olivier Hairault

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Thepthida Sopraseuth

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cet article propose une revue de la littérature des MEGIS en économie ouverte. Le MEGIS international de base est incapable de rendre compte de la synchronisation cyclique des PIB observée dans les données, de la faible corrélation croisée des consommations et des fortes variations du taux de change. Ces énigmes empiriques ont donné lieu à une suite d'enrichissements théoriques visant à rendre ces modèles plus conformes aux données. La contribution d'Obstfeld & Rogoff (1995) s'impose comme un modèle de référence car offrant des fondements microéconomiques à une cadre keynésien en économie ouverte. Les travaux récents tentent de dépasser le modèle néo-keynésien en intégrant des éléments provenant des théories du commerce international ou de choix de portefeuille.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Olivier Hairault & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2008. "Fluctuations Internationales et Dynamique du Taux de Change," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00270284, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00270284
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