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Net Exports, Consumption Volatility and International Real Business Cycle Models

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  • Andrea Raffo

    () (Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas City)

Abstract

Conventional two-country RBC models interpret countercyclical net exports as reflecting, in large part, the dynamics of capital. I show that, quantitatively, theoretical economies rely on counterfactual terms of trade effects: trade fluctuations, on the contrary, are driven primarily by consumption smoothing, thus generating procyclical net trade in goods. I then consider a class of preferences that embeds home production in a reduced form: consumption volatility increases so that countercyclical net exports reflect primarily a strong relation between import of goods and income, as in the data. The major discrepancy between theory and data concerns the variability of international prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Raffo, 2006. "Net Exports, Consumption Volatility and International Real Business Cycle Models," 2006 Meeting Papers 128, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies; The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/86, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2010. "Analysis of Fiscal Shocks in a Small Open Economy with Home Production," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_009, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Net exports; Home production; Consumption volatility.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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