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The International Dimension Of Productivity And Demand Shocks In The Us Economy

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

This paper analyzes the cross-country effects of productivity and demand disturbances in the United States identified with sign restrictions based on standard theory. Productivity gains in US manufacturing increase US consumption and investment vis-à-vis foreign countries, resulting in a trade deficit and higher international prices of US goods, despite the rise in their supply. Financial adjustment works via a higher global value of US equities, real dollar appreciation, and an expansion of US gross foreign liabilities as well as assets. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also increase investment and cause a real dollar appreciation, but have limited effects on the trade balance and net foreign assets. Our findings emphasize the importance for macroeconomic interdependence of endogenous fluctuations in aggregate demand across countries in response to business cycle shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2014. "The International Dimension Of Productivity And Demand Shocks In The Us Economy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 153-176, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:12:y:2014:i:1:p:153-176
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.12070
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    2. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 77-89.
    3. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Fadinger, Harald & Yanping, Liu, 2017. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity," Working Papers 17-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    4. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
    5. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    6. Enders, Almira & Enders, Zeno & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2018. "International financial market integration, asset compositions, and the falling exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 151-175.
    7. Sa, Filipa & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2010. "Monetary policy, capital inflows and the housing boom," Bank of England working papers 405, Bank of England.
    8. repec:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:99-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Caterina Mendicino, 2014. "House prices and expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 12-15.
    10. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    11. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    13. Guido Baldi & André Bodmer, 2017. "Intangible investments and international business cycles," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 211-219, April.
    14. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    15. Hjortsoe, Ida, 2016. "Imbalances and fiscal policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 225-241.
    16. Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2015. "TFP, News, and 'Sentiments': The International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 640, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    17. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    18. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2015. "The effects of surprise and anticipated technology changes on international relative prices and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 162-177.
    19. repec:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:66-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    21. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    22. Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Filippo di Mauro, 2014. "Assessing competitiveness: initial results from the new compnet micro-based database," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 2-7.
    23. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:4:p:856-890 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Sebastian Schmidt, 2014. "Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 8-11.
    25. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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