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Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy

  • Andrew Mountford

This paper adapts Uhlig's ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (2005) forthcoming] sign restriction identification methodology to investigate the effects of UK monetary policy using a structural vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that shocks which can reasonably be described as monetary policy shocks have played only a small role in the total variation of UK monetary and macroeconomic variables. Most of the variation in UK monetary variables has been due to their systematic reaction to other macroeconomic shocks, namely non-monetary aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and oil price shocks. We also find, without imposing any long run identifying restrictions, that aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects on output. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00133.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 67 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 597-621

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:5:p:597-621
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  1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2001. "Did the FED Surprise the Markets in 2001? A Case Study for Vars with Sign Restrictions," Discussion Paper 2001-88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Robertson, Donald & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Real and Nominal Macroeconomic Shocks and Their International Transmission under Different Monetary Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 5-27, February.
  17. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
  18. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000.
  19. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  20. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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