IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v96y2006i4p1293-1307.html

Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations*

* This paper has been replicated

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Beaudry
  • Franck Portier

Abstract

We show that the joint behavior of stock prices and TFP favors a view of business cycles driven largely by a shock that does not affect productivity in the short run ? and therefore does not look like a standard technology shock ? but affects productivity with substantial delay ? and therefore does not look like a monetary shock. One structural interpretation for this shock is that it represents news about future technological opportunities which is first captured in stock prices. This shock causes a boom in consumption, investment, and hours worked that precedes productivity growth by a few years, and explains about 50 percent of business cycle fluctuations. (JEL G12, E32, E44)

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:4:p:1293-1307
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.96.4.1293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.96.4.1293
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/sept06/20030282_data.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/aer.96.4.1293?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448, Elsevier.
    4. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. "An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-687, July.
    6. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 176-199, April.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    8. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    9. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    10. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    13. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    16. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    17. Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April.
    18. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2003. "Stock Market and Investment Goods Prices: Implications for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 10031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    2. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2002. "Technology shocks matter," Working Paper Series WP-02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ghent, Andra C., 2009. "Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 864-882, April.
    5. Sandra Martina Leitner, 2007. "The Austrian Business Cycle - A Role for Technology Shocks?," Economics working papers 2007-19, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2008. "Do Nominal Rigidities Matter for the Transmission of Technology Shocks?," Cahiers de recherche 0837, CIRPEE.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Comment on "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 457-474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hikaru Saijo, 2019. "Technology Shocks and Hours Revisited: Evidence from Household Data," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 347-362, January.
    10. Liu, Zheng & Phaneuf, Louis, 2007. "Technology shocks and labor market dynamics: Some evidence and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2534-2553, November.
    11. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Elmar Mertens, 2005. "Puzzling Comovements between Output and Interest Rates? Multiple Shocks are the Answer," Working Papers 05.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    13. Neville R. Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005. "What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    14. Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong, 2003. "On the Employment Effect of Technology: Evidence from US Manufacturing for 1958-1996," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    17. Laura Bisio & Andrea Faccini, 2010. "Does Cointegration Matter? An Analysis in a RBC Perspective," Working Papers in Public Economics 133, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    18. Shingo Watanabe, 2012. "The Role Of Technology And Nontechnology Shocks In Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1287-1321, November.
    19. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Athena T. Theodorou, 2003. "The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Nov), pages 53-66.
    20. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.

    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.

    • More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations (AER 2006) in ReplicationWiki
    2. Canadian Macro Study Group

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:4:p:1293-1307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.