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Speculative Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Mohamad L. Hammour

Abstract

We propose a framework for understanding recurrent historical episodes of vigorous economic expansion accompanied by extreme asset valuations, as exhibited by Japan in the 1980's and the U.S. in the 1990's. We interpret this phenomenon as a high-valuation equilibrium with a low effective cost of capital based on optimism about the future availability of funds for investment. The key to the sustainability of such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to an increase in the supply of funding. We show that such feedback arises naturally when the expansion is concentrated in a new economy' sector and when it is supported by sustained financial surpluses-both of which would constitute an integral part, as cause and consequence, of a speculative growth' equilibrium. The high-valuation equilibrium we analyze may take the form of a stock market bubble. In contrast to classic bubbles on non-productive assets, the bubbles in our model encourage real investments, boost long run savings, and may appear in dynamically efficient economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9381
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    1. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
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    3. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.
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    6. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    7. King, Ian & Ferguson, Don, 1993. "Dynamic inefficiency, endogenous growth, and Ponzi games," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 79-104, August.
    8. Jacques Olivier, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," Post-Print hal-00460097, HAL.
    9. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Ernesto Talvi, 1997. "Saving Behavior in Latin America: Overview and Policy Issues," Research Department Publications 4070, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Olivier, Jacques, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 133-151, February.
    11. Guido Cozzi, 1998. "Culture as a Bubble," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 376-394, April.
    12. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    13. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    14. Philippe Weil, 1990. "On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8701, Sciences Po.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wigniolle, B., 2014. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 188-208.
    3. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 88-105, May.
    4. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00673892 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jermann, Urban J. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2007. "Stock market boom and the productivity gains of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 413-432, March.
    6. Hoon Hian Teck & Edmund S. Phelps, 2006. "ICT-Producing Sector on Business Activity," Working Papers 07-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    8. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2006. "House Prices, Rents and Interest Rates Under Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Burger, Anton, 2006. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1360, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp095, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Franz R. Hahn, "undated". "Finance and the Business Cycle. The Ricardian Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 209, WIFO.
    12. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2003. "The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
    13. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2008. "US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 225-235, July.
    15. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00673892 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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