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Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Tuomas A. Peltonen
  • Ricardo M. Sousa
  • Isabel S. Vansteenkiste

Abstract

The paper uses a panel vector autoregression approach to analyze the dynamics of the transition of investment to shocks to fundamental and financial factors in emerging market economies. By relying on a panel of thirty-one emerging economies and quarterly frequency data for the period 1990:1-2008:3, we show that (1) investment sluggishly adjusts to its own shocks; (2) gross domestic product and equity price shocks have a positive and sizable impact on investment; (3) unexpected variation in the cost of capital and the lending rate has a negative effect on investment; and (4) the response of investment to credit market developments seems to be driven by the demand side. In addition, the effects of equity price shocks appear to be similar for emerging Asia and Latin America, but credit shocks are more important in Latin America. Moreover, shocks to the lending rate have a pronounced and negative impact in emerging European markets. Finally, we show that the stock market bubbles may have encouraged real investment during the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 88-105, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:47:y:2011:i:0:p:88-105
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    Cited by:

    1. José María Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," BIS Working Papers 624, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Nemlioglu, Ilayda & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2020. "Do innovation-intensive firms mitigate their valuation uncertainty during bad times?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 913-940.
    3. Nemlioglu, Ilayda & Mallick, Sushanta, 2021. "Effective innovation via better management of firms: The role of leverage in times of crisis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Mehtab Arshad Butt & Haroon Shafi & Kashif-Ur-Rehman & Rana Rashid Rehman & Hafiz Muhammad Shoaib, 2011. "Investor’s Dilemma: Fundamentals or Biasness in Investment Decision," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(2), pages 122-127.
    5. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vansteenkiste, Isabel S., 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging market economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 155-166.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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