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Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?

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  • Jose Maria Serena

    (BIS)

  • Ricardo Sousa

    (ESM)

Abstract

We assess the conditions under which exchange rate fluctuations are contractionary for firm-level investment. To address this question, we match firm-level balance sheet data with a large dataset of firm-level bonds for about 1,000 firms from 36 emerging market economies over the period 1998–2014. We augment a standard firm-level investment model to control for (country-specific) macroeconomic variables, and interact the effect of an exchange rate depreciation with several dimensions of bond composition, namely: 1) currency of issuance; 2) maturity structure of bonds; and 3) market of issuance. We find that, conditional on the amount of debt issued in foreign currency, an exchange rate depreciation can have a contractionary impact on a firm’s investment spending. We also find that the market of issuance and maturity structure, in particular, when coupled with foreign currency-denominated debt can influence this impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Maria Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2018. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," Working Papers 26, European Stability Mechanism.
  • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:26
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    2. Bryan Hardy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks and real outcomes," BIS Working Papers 758, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2021. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 90-121, March.
    4. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "Exchange rate appreciations and corporate risk taking," BIS Working Papers 710, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    7. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    8. Luis I. Jacome H. & Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Alexander Ziegenbein, 2018. "Is Credit Easing Viable in Emerging and Developing Economies? An Empirical Approach," IMF Working Papers 2018/043, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; exchange rate; balance sheet; bonds; firm-level data; debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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