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Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Szkup

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Fernando Leibovici

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • David Kohn

    (Universidad Catolica de Chile)

Abstract

We study the role of financial frictions and balance-sheet effects in accounting for the dynamics of aggregate exports in large devaluations. We investigate a small open economy with heterogeneous firms and idiosyncratic productivity shocks, where firms face financing constraints and debt can be denominated in domestic or foreign units. In our model, a real depreciation affects firms through two channels. On the one hand, it increases the returns to selling internationally, making exporting more profitable. On the other hand, it tightens the borrowing constraint by increasing the value of foreign-denominated debt relative to firms’ net worth. We calibrate the model to match key features from plant-level data and use it to quantify the importance of these channels. We find that financial frictions slow down the response of aggregate exports, and foreign-denominated debt amplifies this effect by decreasing firms’ net worth on impact. However, we find that these channels can only explain a small fraction of the dynamics of exports observed in the data. While financial frictions and balance-sheet effects distort production and investment decisions, exports are significantly less affected as firms reallocate sales across markets in response to the change in the real exchange rate. We document the importance of cross-market reallocation for export dynamics using firm-level data from Mexico’s devaluation in 1994.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Szkup & Fernando Leibovici & David Kohn, 2017. "Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," 2017 Meeting Papers 859, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:859
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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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