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Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

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  • David Kohn

    ()

  • Fernando Leibovici

    ()

  • Michal Szkup

    ()

Abstract

We study the role of financial frictions and balance-sheet effects in accounting for the dynamics of aggregate exports in large devaluations. In standard models of international trade, exports increase immediately following a large devaluation; in contrast, aggregate exports respond sluggishly in the data. We investigate a small open economy with heterogeneous firms and idiosyncratic productivity shocks, where firms face financing constraints and debt can be denominated in domestic or foreign units. In our model, a real depreciation affects firms through two channels. On the one hand, it increases the returns to selling internationally, making exporting more profitable. On the other hand, it tightens the borrowing constraint by increasing the value of foreign debt relative to firms’ net worth. We calibrate the model to match key features from plant-level data and use it to quantify the importance of these channels. We find that financial frictions slow down the response of aggregate exports, and foreign-denominated debt amplifies this effect by decreasing firms’ net worth on impact. When accounting for the observed heterogeneity in export intensity across exporters, these channels explain a large share of the gap between the data and the frictionless model.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2015. "Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015_2, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2015_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Alfaro & Alejandro Cuñat & Harald Fadinger & Yanping Liu, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Asymmetries and Hysteresis," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-044, Harvard Business School, revised May 2018.
    2. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Liu, Yanping & Fadinger, Harald, 2018. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity : regional heterogeneity, asymmetries and hysteresis," Working Papers 18-05, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. Doungdao Mahakitsiri & Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2020. "Understanding the Bimodality of the Export Intensity Distribution in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 139, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2020.
    4. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2019. "Financial Development and Trade Liberalization," 2019 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Alessandria, George & Avila, Oscar, 2020. "Trade Integration in Colombia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with New Exporter Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Fabrice Defever & Alejandro Riaño, 2017. "Twin Peaks," CEP Discussion Papers dp1505, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2017. "Foreign Currency Loans and Credit Risk: Evidence from U.S. Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 6700, CESifo.
    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    9. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2017. "Financial Frictions, Trade, and Misallocation," Research Department working papers 1106, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica.
    10. Janiak, Alexandre & Machado, Caio & Turén, Javier, 2021. "Covid-19 contagion, economic activity and business reopening protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 264-284.
    11. Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2019. "Firm Export Dynamics and the Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," Working Papers 2019-05, Banco de México.
    12. Jonas C. Crews & Fernando Leibovici, 2018. "Trade Adjusts Gradually After Trade Liberalization," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 1, pages 1-2.
    13. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Juan Esteban Carranza & Camila Casas & Alejandra Ximena González-Ramírez, 2020. "The Colombian peso depreciation of 2014-2015 and the adjustment of trade in the manufacturing sector," Borradores de Economia 1125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Fadinger, Harald & Yanping, Liu, 2017. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity," Working Papers 17-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; financial frictions; borrowing constraints; large devaluations; export elasticity; export dynamics; quantitative;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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