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An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis

In: Economic Development in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Bebczuk
  • Arturo Galindo
  • Ugo Panizza

Abstract

Throughout his sharp writings and lucid presentations on Latin American economies, Professor Werner Baer has shown a vivid interest in exchange rate policy and its growth and welfare consequences. In particular, he has consistently been concerned with how macroeconomic strategies shape the income distribution and the level of unemployment in developing countries.1

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-29738-8_8
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230297388_8
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    1. Benavente, Jose Miguel & Johnson, Christian A. & Morande, Felipe G., 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciations: a firm-level analysis for Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 397-416, December.
    2. Bonomo, Marco & Martins, Betina & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2003. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 368-396, December.
    3. Aguiar, Mark, 2005. "Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 95-113, October.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    6. Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
    7. Felipe Larrain & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages," NBER Working Papers 2078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    9. Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Montero, Jose Manuel, 2007. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 284-298, December.
    10. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    11. Carranza, Luis J. & Cayo, Juan M. & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2003. "Exchange rate volatility and economic performance in Peru: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 472-496, December.
    12. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-508, August.
    13. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    14. Felipe Morandé, "undated". "Debt Composition and Balance-Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate: A Firm level Analysis for Chile," DCBSLA Series 2, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Galiani, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schargrodsky, Ernesto, 2003. "Financial dollarization and debt deflation under a currency board," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 340-367, December.
    16. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    17. Baer, Werner & Maloney, William, 1997. "Neoliberalism and income distribution in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-327, March.
    18. Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
    19. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    20. Sangeeta Pratap & Alejandro Somuano, "undated". "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effect of Exchange and Interest Rate Volatility in Mexico," DCBSLA Series 4, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    21. Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 1986. "Devaluation and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Empirical Analysis of the Contractionary Devaluation Issue," UCLA Economics Working Papers 412, UCLA Department of Economics.
    23. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Cedric Durand & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Balance sheets after the EMU : an assessment of the redenomination risk," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-31, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7d576lom6n8up9mj8qdcmjnufl is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    7. Erdal ÖZMEN & Cihan YALÇIN, 2007. "Küresel finansal riskler karşısında Türkiye’de reel sektörün finansal yapısı ve borç dolarizasyonu," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(258), pages 5-39.
    8. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    9. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    10. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.
    11. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    12. Ashok Babubudjnauth & Boopen Seetanah, 2021. "An empirical analysis of the impacts of real exchange rate on GDP, manufacturing output and services sector in Mauritius," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1657-1669, April.
    13. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    14. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    15. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    16. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome & Olarewaju, Favour, 2020. "Broad Dollar Shocks and Economic Activity in Trade-Heavy Countries: The Role of Government Size," MPRA Paper 100944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2017. "An estimated financial accelerator model for small-open African economies," MPRA Paper 95977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2020. "Destabilizing Stability? Exchange Rate Arrangements and Foreign Currency Debt," IMF Working Papers 2020/173, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Esteban Javier Leguizamón & Pablo Alfredo Gluzmann, 2019. "Tipo de cambio real y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de robustez," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4162, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Real Exchange Rate; Foreign Currency; Exchange Rate Volatility; External Debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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