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Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects

  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Alejandro Izquierdo
  • Rudy Loo-Kung

Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance-sheet effects as key determinants of relative-price volatility, where balance-sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11492.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11492.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Publication status: published as Calvo, Guillermo A., Alejandro Izquierdo and Rudy Loo-Kung. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance Sheet Effects," Journal of International Economics, 2006, v69(1,Jun), 231-254.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11492
Note: IFM
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  1. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, June.
  3. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. de la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler & Sergio L., 2004. "Coping with risk through mismatches : domestic and international financial contracts for emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3212, The World Bank.
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Financial Markets in Times of Stress," NBER Working Papers 8569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  8. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," RCER Working Papers 513, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Honohan, Patrick & Shi, Anging, 2001. "Deposit dollarization and the financial sector in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2748, The World Bank.
  13. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "The curse of non-investment grade countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 423-449, December.
  14. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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