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Balance sheets after the EMU : an assessment of the redenomination risk

Author

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  • Cedric Durand

    (Université Paris 13)

  • Sébastien Villemot

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

Abstract

The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, since the redenomination process could introduce significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our main conclusion is that, even though the problem has to be taken seriously, its order of magnitude should not be exaggerated. Only a few sectors are at significant risk: public debts of Greece and Portugal, financial sectors of Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg. In particular, the consequences for the nonfinancial private sector should be manageable. We provide policy recommendations aiming at limiting the risk ex ante, and mitigating the consequences ex post.

Suggested Citation

  • Cedric Durand & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Balance sheets after the EMU : an assessment of the redenomination risk," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-31, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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    6. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 243-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "The nature of the eurocrisis. A reply to Febrero, Uxò and Bermejo," Department of Economics University of Siena 752, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Beyond the traditional monetary circuit: endogenous money, finance and the theory of long-period effective demand," Department of Economics University of Siena 757, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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    Keywords

    Euro; balance sheet; risk; public debts;

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