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Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs

  • Eddy Bekkers
  • Joseph Francois

We study the labor market effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. We place emphasis on the composition of trade, the role of intermediates, and the underlying conditions of the labor market. Employment effects hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that appreciation has beneficial effects. Furthermore, more sticky price expectations in wage formation, a smaller fraction of intermediates in the production process, and a lower rate of importer pass through make it more likely that appreciation of the exchange rate of the trade partner has positive employment effects. At a more technical level, the scope for substitution away from higher priced inputs, either toward other sources of supply, or toward value added, is also important to the direction and magnitude of changes in employment.

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File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2012/wp1202.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2012-02.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2012_02
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Web page: http://www.econ.jku.at/

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  1. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  2. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher & Guerrieri, Luca, 2010. "The Effects of Foreign Shocks When Interest Rates Are at Zero," CEPR Discussion Papers 8006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ray C Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 233-243, October.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  6. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1755, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 183-229 Elsevier.
  9. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
  10. Christopher S. P. Magee & Stephen P. Magee, 2008. "The United States is a Small Country in World Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 990-1004, November.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589970 is not listed on IDEAS
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