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Choques externos y reasignación sectorial de recursos. Evidencia para la economía argentina

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  • Lanteri, Luis N.

Abstract

This paper considers two important sources of relative price changes in an open economy: the terms of trade and the real exchange rate movements. The paper examines the effects on real output of the terms of trade and the real exchange rate movements in Argentina, between 1977 and 1998, and provides evidence on their differential impacts on the tradable and nontradable goods sectors. The paper also explains the effects of monetary shocks, fiscal policies and the net capital flows, on economic activity through the estimation of VAR in the Johansen framework. The results of the study show that an improvement in the Argentina terms of trade is associated With relatively more expansion in nontradables output and a real depreciation of the domestic currency is associated with relatively more contractionary output effects in the nontradables.// Este trabajo analiza dos importantes fuentes de cambios en los precios relativos, en el caso de economías abiertas: las alteraciones en los términos de intercambios externos y los movimientos en los tipos de cambio real. El trabajo examina los efectos de esas perturbaciones externas en el producto agregado y sectorial de la economía argentina, durante el periodo 1977-1998 (posterior a la reforma financiera), y proporciona evidencia respecto al efecto diferencial que generan esos choques en los sectores de bienes comerciables y de no comerciables internacionalmente. El trabajo analiza también los efectos provocados por los choques monetarios, por la política fiscal y por las corrientes netas de capital en la actividad económica. Para ello, se estiman seis modelos de VAR, de acuerdo con la metodología de vectores cointegrados propuesta por Johansen. Los resultados empíricos muestran que los choques positivos en los términos de intercambio externos inducen un efecto expansivo relativamente mayor en el sector de bienes no comerciables(al menos en el corto plazo), en tanto que las devaluaciones reales provocan un efecto contractivo de menor magnitud en el sector de bienes comerciables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanteri, Luis N., 2001. "Choques externos y reasignación sectorial de recursos. Evidencia para la economía argentina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 369-403, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:68:y:2001:i:271:p:369-403
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