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Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?

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  • Abdur R. Chowdhury

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-572
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    6. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2015. "Banking Sector Development and Household Saving in Emerging Eastern Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1089, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Tomasz Jasiński & Paweł Mielcarz, 2013. "Consumption as a Factor of Polish Economic Growth During the Global Recession of 2008/2009: A Comparison with Spain and Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
    8. Timo Baas, 2006. "Die Disparität der Sparquoten Ost- und Westdeutschlands: kann der spezifische ostdeutsche Transformationsprozess die Abweichung erklären?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 121-134.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition; private savings; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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