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Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Aizenman, Joshua

Abstract

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.
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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2004. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 321-340, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:63:y:2004:i:2:p:321-340
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    1. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Tai, Andrew, 2017. "Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 353-370.
    2. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Raimundo Soto, 2015. "Why do Countries have Fiscal Rules?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(3), pages 28-61, December.
    3. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Peter J. Montiel & Luis Servén, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is there a Link?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-18, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004. "Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 487-514, December.
    7. Rodrigo Cerda & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José Ignacio Llodrá, 2015. "Understanding Domestic Savings in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7254, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    9. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2015. "Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean; Performance and Policies," IMF Working Papers 15/108, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca Driver, 2003. "Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 269-286, Spring.
    12. repec:eee:reveco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:103-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    14. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
    15. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2018. "Terms-of-trade cycles and external adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 103-122.
    16. Rodrigo Cerda & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José Ignacio Llodrá, 2015. "Understanding Domestic Savings in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91437, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. World Bank, 2011. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : Sustaining High Growth - The Role of Domestic savings : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12264, The World Bank.
    18. Tayyaba Idrees & Saira Tufail, 2012. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 87-110, July-Dec.
    19. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E., 2015. "Four decades of terms-of-trade booms: A metric of income windfall," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-192.

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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