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The Saving Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe

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  • Cevdet Denizer
  • Holger C. Wolf

Abstract

Almost all of the transition economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union experienced a severe decline in their national saving rates. The saving collapse could be explained by the elimination of involuntary saving, a feature of central planning, or by a change in equilibrium saving reflecting the new economic-circumstances following the end of socialism. The predicted saving rates of market economies with the same fundamentals as the transition economies before the transition are computed to test for the presence of involuntary saving. The results provide some support for the hypothesis of consumption smoothing. Also considered is whether differences in the extent of liberalization affected saving rates in the cross section of transition economies. This is found to be the case: greater liberalization is association with lower saving with a one-year lag. To the extent that liberalization is associated with future growth, this finding is consistent with smoothing in the face of output evolving along J-curve. Copyright The Author 2000. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "The Saving Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 445-455, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:445-455
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    1. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813108448_0012 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2004. "Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Private Savings in Europe?: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 431, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2015. "Banking Sector Development and Household Saving in Emerging Eastern Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1089, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004. "Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 487-514, December.
    4. Dumitru, Ionut & Mircea, Romulus & Jianu (Dumitru), Ionela, 2011. "Economisirea în România – evoluţii şi factori determinanţi
      [Savings in Romania - developments and fundamentals]
      ," MPRA Paper 29027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2001. "Savings in Central Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 250, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June.
    7. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2002. "Back on Track?: Savings Puzzles in EU-Accession Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 306, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Shida, Yoshisada, 2015. "Forced Savings in the Soviet Republics: Re-examination," RRC Working Paper Series 54, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2003. "Private Savings in Eastern European EU-Accession Countries: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 372, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA.
    11. Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Macroeconomic factors in corporate and household saving. Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Dec 2015.

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