IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0510020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksander Aristovnik

    (Faculty of Administration)

Abstract

The article’s main objective is to investigate the empirical link between the fiscal balance and the current account (i.e. the twin deficits phenomenon). The article focuses on transition economies which are according to their different characteristics divided into three major groups, i.e. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Southern and Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In fact, the inconsistency between public sector instability and currency overvaluations which led to current account balance deterioration was denoted as one of the key determinants of the balance of payments (currency) crisis seen in transition economies like Czech Republic (1997) and Russia (1998). Moreover, the importance of the so- called Horioka-Feldstein puzzle in transition economies is examined in order to draw some conclusions about the regions’ integration with international capital markets. For this purpose, pooled cross-sectional and time-series techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variations across selected groups of transition economies in the 1990-2003 period. The empirical results suggest that high budget deficits in transition countries have signaled relatively low level of substitutability between private and public savings, implying a relatively high correlation between fiscal and external imbalances. Accordingly, special emphasis should be paid to the fiscal policy shift in these economies. Indeed, the main element of the economic policy reversal in transition countries should involve a substantial reduction of fiscal deficits in the future in order to reduce the probability of a balance of payments (currency) crisis. Finally, the article provides some evidence of the existence of the Horioka-Feldstein puzzle in transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0510020
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/if/papers/0510/0510020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    3. Paolo Zanghieri, 2004. "Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues," Working Papers 2004-07, CEPII research center.
    4. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    6. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    11. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2002. "Back on Track?: Savings Puzzles in EU-Accession Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 306, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "The Saving Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 445-455, September.
    13. Helen Popper, 1990. "International capital mobility: direct evidence from long-term currency swaps," International Finance Discussion Papers 386, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
    15. Daniel Levy, 2003. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    17. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle History?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 569-590, September.
    18. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
    19. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    20. Michael M. Hutchison & Nirvikar Singh, 1993. "Long-term international capital mobility: new evidence from equilibrium real interest rate linkages," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    22. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    23. Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J. & Bussière, Matthieu, 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 311, European Central Bank.
    24. Alam, Asad & Sundberg, Mark, 2002. "A decade of fiscal transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2835, The World Bank.
    25. Elif Akbostanci & Gül Ipek Tunç, 2001. "Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance," ERC Working Papers 0106, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2001.
    26. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1987. "Government spending, the balance of trade and the terms of trade in British history," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 195-220, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:386-403 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    3. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    4. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    5. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0510020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.