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Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Donal McGettigan

Abstract

Large current account imbalances have been recorded in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union since their independence. Are these current account positions sustainable, reflecting the special circumstances of transition, or are the positions untenable over the longer term? This study attempts to address this important question by first describing recent current account developments in these transition economies. It subsequently focuses on a wide range of external sustainability indicators by drawing on the existing literature, and attempts to assess their potential usefulness in a transiton country context. The indicators examined include real exchange rates, fiscal revenues and expenditures, savings and investment developments, openness measures, growth projections, external debt composition, foreign exchange reserve cover, and various financial sector measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/005, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfops:2000/005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttila, Jukka, 2002. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316.
    2. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp844, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Guy Debelle & Gabriele Galati, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 989-1013, November.
    4. Nkuna, Onelie, 2013. "Sustainability of the Malawian Current Account Deficit: Application of Structural and Solvency Approaches," MPRA Paper 51919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nopphadon Buranathanung & Chaipat Poonpatpibul, 2002. "External Debt Dynamics and Current Account Sustainability," Working Papers 2002-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    6. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    7. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttila, Jukka, 2002. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316.
    8. de Haan, Jakob & Berger, Helge & van Fraassen, Erik, 2001. "How to reduce inflation: an independent central bank or a currency board? The experience of the Baltic countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 218-243, September.
    9. Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak, 2000. "Currency Crises and Fiscal Imbalances. The Transition Countries Perspective," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0219, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Mr. Alex Mourmouras & Mr. Timothy D. Lane, 2002. "Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant?," IMF Working Papers 2002/011, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2000_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies?," MPRA Paper 485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kwalingana, Samson & Nkuna, Onelie, 2009. "The Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in Malawi," MPRA Paper 14694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Noppadol Buranathanung & Chaipat Poonpatpibul, 2003. "External Debt Dynamics and Current Account Sustainability," Working Papers 2003-10, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    17. Aleksander Aristovnik & Andrej Kumar, 2006. "Some Characteristics of Sharp Current Account Deficit Reversals in Transition Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(1), pages 9-45.
    18. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Reversals and Persistency in Transition Regions," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, May.
    19. Benkovskis, Konstantins, 2005. "Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments," MPRA Paper 23274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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