IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wdi/papers/2006-844.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksander Aristovnik

    ()

Abstract

The article examines the question of whether the current account deficits seen in selected transition economies in recent years mainly as a symptom of the dynamic economic activity of the catching-up process are a source of potential macroeconomic destabilisation. Given the possible significant reduction of capital flows, as well as restrictions and lessons from recent financial crises, current account deficits must be closely monitored in the region. In this respect, the issue of ???current account sustainability??? in seventeen transition economies is investigated. For this purpose, two accounting frameworks (Milesi-Ferreti and Razin, 1996; Reisen, 1998) based on certain strict assumptions are employed. The results show that if the observed level of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is kept in the medium run almost all countries could optimally have a higher level of external deficit, with the exception of countries such as Baltic States, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova and Romania. Accordingly, the maintenance of relatively large FDI inflows (especially greenfield investments) to national economies is a key priority in securing future external sustainability. In the end, the results indicate that current account deficits of transition economies that exceed 5 percent of GDP generally involve problems of their external sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp844, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-844
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57224/1/wp844.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-131, January.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, September.
    5. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June.
    7. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 1998. "International Capital Flows and National Creditworthiness; Do the Fundamental Things Apply As Time Goes By?," IMF Working Papers 98/172, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
    10. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
    11. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jan Svejnar, 2002. "Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J. & Bussière, Matthieu, 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 311, European Central Bank.
    14. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22.
    2. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    3. Shapovalenko Nadiia V. & Tokarchuk Taras V., 2016. "Analysis of External Imbalances in the Economy of Ukraine on the Basis of Determining an Acceptable Level of the Current Account of Balance of Payments," The Problems of Economy, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), issue 4, pages 57-66.
    4. Rubaszek, Michal & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 277-284, December.
    5. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 51244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies?," MPRA Paper 485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," MPRA Paper 483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Aleksander Aristovnik & Stanka Setnikar-Cankar, 2006. "How Excessive are External Imbalances in Selected Transition Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 243-267.
    4. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Reversals and Persistency in Transition Regions," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, May.
    6. Aleksander Aristovnik & Andrej Kumar, 2006. "Some Characteristics of Sharp Current Account Deficit Reversals in Transition Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(1), pages 9-45.
    7. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    9. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June.
    10. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2007. "Short- and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries," MPRA Paper 1974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Resat CEYLAN, 2018. "Kirilgan Beslide Cari Aciklarin Surdurulebilirligi: Dogrusal Olmayan Birim Kok Testleri Ile Kanitlar," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 18(1), pages 121-134.
    12. B. Andreosso‐O’Callaghan & Denis Kan, 2007. "Analysis Of The Current Account Position Of Four Asian Countries Before The 1997 Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, February.
    13. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "External imbalances in a monetary union. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?," Working Papers 10-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    14. Puri, Tribhuvan N. & Kuan, Chikuang & Maskooki, Kooros, 2002. "An analysis of currency crisis in South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 121-146.
    15. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Yan, Ho-don, 2007. "Does capital mobility finance or cause a current account imbalance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, March.
    19. Bineau, Yannick, 2008. "Équilibre extérieur et taux de change réel : apport du modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(3), pages 263-285, septembre.
    20. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition economies; current account deficits; sustainability; FDI;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WDI). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.