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Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries

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  • Aleksander Aristovnik

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Abstract

The article examines the question of whether the current account deficits seen in selected transition economies in recent years mainly as a symptom of the dynamic economic activity of the catching-up process are a source of potential macroeconomic destabilisation. Given the possible significant reduction of capital flows, as well as restrictions and lessons from recent financial crises, current account deficits must be closely monitored in the region. In this respect, the issue of ???current account sustainability??? in seventeen transition economies is investigated. For this purpose, two accounting frameworks (Milesi-Ferreti and Razin, 1996; Reisen, 1998) based on certain strict assumptions are employed. The results show that if the observed level of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is kept in the medium run almost all countries could optimally have a higher level of external deficit, with the exception of countries such as Baltic States, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova and Romania. Accordingly, the maintenance of relatively large FDI inflows (especially greenfield investments) to national economies is a key priority in securing future external sustainability. In the end, the results indicate that current account deficits of transition economies that exceed 5 percent of GDP generally involve problems of their external sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp844, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-844
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    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57224/1/wp844.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-131, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22.
    2. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Romanian current account sustainability after the adhesion to European Union," MPRA Paper 51244, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2013.
    3. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    4. Rubaszek, Michal & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 277-284, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition economies; current account deficits; sustainability; FDI;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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