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How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies?

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  • Aristovnik, Aleksander

Abstract

The article examines the issue of ‘current account sustainability’ in seventeen transition economies. For this purpose, two accounting frameworks (Milesi-Ferreti and Razin, 1996; Reisen, 1998) based on certain strict assumptions are employed. The results show that if the observed level of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is kept in the medium run almost all countries could optimally have a higher level of external deficit, with the exception of countries such as Baltic States, Hungary, Macedonia, Moldova and Romania. Accordingly, the maintenance of relatively large FDI inflows (especially greenfield investments) to national economies is a key priority in securing future external sustainability. In the end, the results indicate that current account deficits of transition economies that exceed 5 percent of GDP generally involve problems of their external sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "How sustainable are current account deficits in selected transition economies?," MPRA Paper 485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gedeon Shirley, 2010. "The Political Economy of Currency Boards: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 7-20, November.
    2. Srđan Boljanović, 2012. "A Sustainability Analysis Of Serbia’S Current Account Deficit," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(195), pages 139-172, October -.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Note on the Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies," Working Papers 2012011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    4. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition economies; current account deficits; sustainability; FDI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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