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Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Danica Unevska Andonova

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Branimir Jovanovic

    () (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

Most of the emerging European countries, including Republic of Macedonia, are faced with greater or smaller current account deficits, which raise the concern about their sustainability in the long run. This working paper examines the sustainability of the Macedonian current account deficit using the structural model of the current account. According to this model, the current account is viewed as the outcome of variations in macroeconomic “structural” determinants that influence the saving-investment balance. The results show that budget deficit, economic growth, FDI and financial intermediation are the variables that had an effect on the Macedonian current account in the period 1998-2009, and that the sustainable level of the current account deficit is in the range of 5.3%-9.1% of GDP. The current account deficit was fluctuating around this sustainable level most of the time, which indicates that external equilibrium was not jeopardized. However, in the period between the last quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2009, due to the two external shocks in this period (the global increase of prices and the global recession), the current account deficit was higher than the sustainable level, which suggested a violation of the external equilibrium. Although the equilibrium was restored later in 2009, this historical episode points out the need for structural reforms in the Macedonian economy in order to avoid repeating such episodes in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
  • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2011-06
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    File URL: http://www.nbrm.mk/WBStorage/Files/WebBuilder_Sustainability_ofthe_MacedonianCurrentAccount.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Teuta ISMAILI-MUHARREMI, 2015. "Factors Affecting Current Account in the Balance of Payments of Selected Western Balkan Countries," The Journal of Accounting and Management, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3, pages 61-68, December.
    2. Danica Unevska Andonova & Marija Petkovska, 2011. "The transmission of external shocks to the Macedonian economic activity," Working Papers 2011-03, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; sustainability; structural model; saving and investment; external equilibrium; Macedonia;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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