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The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union

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  • Aleksander Aristovnik

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Abstract

The article investigates the main factors of current account deficits in order to assess the potential excessiveness of current account deficits in selected countries of Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union. According to the simulated benchmark calculated on the basis of selected determinants (in period 1992-2003), the results confirm that the actual current account balances are generally close to their estimated levels in the 2000-2003 period in the transition region. This notion is in line with the intertemporal approach to the current account balance, suggesting that higher external deficits are a natural outcome when permanent domestic output exceeds the current one and when current investments and government consumption exceed their permanent levels. Hence, the results suggest that most countries in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union are justified in running relatively high current account deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp827, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-827
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohd. FAYAZ & Kaur Bhatia SANDEEP, 2016. "Trends , Patterns and Determinants of Indian Current Account Deficit," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    2. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years Of Emu: Convergence, Divergence And New Policy Priorities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 208(1), pages 86-100, April.
    3. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers 23, National Bank of Serbia.
    4. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
    5. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    6. Elena Makrevska – Disovska & Marija Trpkova - Nestorovska, 2015. "Factors Affecting Current Account In The Republic Of Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 45-56, December.
    7. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    8. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 995, European Central Bank.
    9. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Alexander Chudik & Alistair Dieppe, 2012. "And then current accounts (over)adjusted," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 245-270, August.
    10. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition countries; current account deficits; excessiveness; determinants; dynamic panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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