IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate

Author

Listed:
  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Paolo Pesenti
  • Nouriel Roubini

Abstract

The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even if market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices, and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by the initial weak economic conditions. The second part of the paper presents a reconstruction of the Asian meltdown -- from the antecedents in 1995-96 to the recent developments in the summer of 1998 -- in parallel with a survey of the debate on the strategies to recover from the crisis, the role of international intervention, and the costs and benefits of capital controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6834
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6834.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Summers, L-H & Cline, W-R & Eichengreen, B & Portes, R & Fraga, A & Goldstein, M, 1996. "From Halifax to Lyons : What Has Been Done About Crisis Management?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 200, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    4. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    7. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 1996. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 1466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1.
    12. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 7, pages 181-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    17. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, July.
    20. Alba, Pedro & Bhattacharya, Amar & Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1998. "Volatility and contagion in a financially integrated world : lessons from East Asia's recent experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2008, The World Bank.
    21. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    22. Pomerleano, Michael, 1998. "The East Asia crisis and corporate finances : the untold micro story," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1990, The World Bank.
    23. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    24. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944.
    25. Li-Gang Liu & Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang, 1998. "Asian Competitive Devaluations," Working Paper Series wp98-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    26. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
    27. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    29. Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), 1998. "The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-26077-5.
    30. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1997. "Politically Motivated Fiscal Deficits: Policy Issues in Closed and Open Economies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 27-54, March.
    33. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386713, October.
    34. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 7-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Hali J. Edison & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    6. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    8. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, July.
    10. Schmidt Paul-Günther, 2001. "Ursachen systemischer Bankenkrisen: Erklärungsversuche, empirische Evidenz und wirtschaftspolitische Konsequenzen," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 52(1), pages 239-280, January.
    11. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    14. Irina Bunda, 2005. "Un modèle de crises jumelles inspiré de la crise asiatique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(4), pages 903-937.
    15. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "The Currency and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: A Case of 'Sudden Death' or Death Foretold'?," Working Papers id:2583, eSocialSciences.
    16. Irina Bunda, 2005. "Un modèle de crises jumelles inspiré de la crise asiatique," Post-Print halshs-00424464, HAL.
    17. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    20. Joon-Ho Hahm & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Causes of the Korean Financial Crisis: Lessons for Policy," NBER Working Papers 7483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.