Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia
We assess links between China and the rest of emerging Asia. Some commentators have argued that China’s apparent devaluation in 1994 may have contributed to the Asian financial crisis. We argue that the devaluation was not economically important: The more-relevant exchange rate was a floating rate that was not devalued, and high Chinese inflation has led to a very sharp real appreciation of the currency. Although in principle, export competition with China could nevertheless have placed pressure on other Asian exporters, we argue that the striking feature of the data is the common movement between export growth from China and from other developing Asian economies. To the extent there is evidence of export competition, it is the period from about 1989 to 1993: China’s exchange rate depreciated sharply, Chinese export growth exceeded export growth of other Asian economies, and the composition of Asian exports (measured by export shares of various goods to the United States and other industrial economies) changed substantially. Finally, we speculate on the effects of the Asian crisis on China’s prospects. China’s economic growth is likely to slow because of increased trade competition as a result of the devaluation of other Asian currencies, and because of reduced capital inflows. In addition, these reduced inflows are likely to reduce job creation in the non-state sector, and hence make enterprise restructuring more difficult in China.
|Date of creation:||1998|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chan, K. Hung & Chow, Lynne, 1997. "An empirical study of tax audits in China on international transfer pricing," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 83-112, May.
- Li-Gang Liu & Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang, 1998. "Asian Competitive Devaluations," Working Paper Series wp98-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- K. C. Fung, 1998.
"Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations,"
NBER Chapters,in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 173-204
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- K.C. Fung, 1996. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Working Papers 5595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997.
"Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1024-1050, October.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, "undated". "Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1994. "Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- James Dow & Gary Gorton, 1994. "Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare," NBER Working Papers 4858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001.
"A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
- Chan Huh & Kenneth Kasa, 1997. "A dynamic model of export competition, policy coordination and simultaneous currency collapse," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael W. Bell & Kalpana Kochhar & Hoe Ee Khor, 1993. "China at the Threshold of a Market Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 107, International Monetary Fund.
- Marc G Quintyn & Bernard J Laurens & Hassanali Mehran & Tom Nordman, 1996. "Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China; An Experiment in Gradualism," IMF Occasional Papers 141, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.