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Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia

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  • John G. Fernald
  • Hali J. Edison
  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

We assess links between China and the rest of emerging Asia. Some commentators have argued that China’s apparent devaluation in 1994 may have contributed to the Asian financial crisis. We argue that the devaluation was not economically important: The more-relevant exchange rate was a floating rate that was not devalued, and high Chinese inflation has led to a very sharp real appreciation of the currency. Although in principle, export competition with China could nevertheless have placed pressure on other Asian exporters, we argue that the striking feature of the data is the common movement between export growth from China and from other developing Asian economies. To the extent there is evidence of export competition, it is the period from about 1989 to 1993: China’s exchange rate depreciated sharply, Chinese export growth exceeded export growth of other Asian economies, and the composition of Asian exports (measured by export shares of various goods to the United States and other industrial economies) changed substantially. Finally, we speculate on the effects of the Asian crisis on China’s prospects. China’s economic growth is likely to slow because of increased trade competition as a result of the devaluation of other Asian currencies, and because of reduced capital inflows. In addition, these reduced inflows are likely to reduce job creation in the non-state sector, and hence make enterprise restructuring more difficult in China.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Hali J. Edison & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramkishen S. Rejan, 1998. "The Currency And Financial Crisis In Southeast Asia - A Case Of `Sudden Deathã¢Â‚¬Â„¢ Or `Death Foretoldã¢Â‚¬Â„¢," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22381, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2004. "How the Dragon Captured the World Export Markets: Outsourcing and Foreign Investment Lead the Way," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R, 1999. "Pegging to the Dollar and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 379-410, November.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    6. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "The Currency and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: A Case of 'Sudden Death' or Death Foretold'?," Working Papers id:2583, eSocialSciences.
    9. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 1998. "The Japanese Economy and Economic Policy in Light of the East Asian Financial Crisis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22382, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Surjit S. Bhalla, 2010. "Chinese Mercantilism: Currency Wars and How the East was Lost," Working Papers id:2751, eSocialSciences.
    12. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 2001. "Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 38-52.
    13. Broome, Simon & Morley, Bruce, 2004. "Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 189-197, February.
    14. Dauvin Peterson & Scott Pardee & Phanindra Wunnava, 2003. "Relative development in stock markets: empirical evidence from mainland China and Hong Kong," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 309-316.
    15. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Competitive devaluations: a welfare-based approach," Staff Reports 58, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Carolan, Terrie & Mora, Jesse & Singh, Nirvikar, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the East Asian Miracle: A Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," MPRA Paper 37124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2003. "An analysis of exchange rate linkage effect: an application of the multivariate correlation analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 337-351, April.
    20. Francois Gurtner, 1999. "The stability of the Renminbi in the wake of the Asian financial crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 34(3), pages 135-143, May.
    21. John G. Fernald & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    23. Finicelli, Andrea & Liccardi, Alessandra & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "A New Indicator of Competitiveness for Italy and the Main Industrial and Emerging Countries," MPRA Paper 4703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia," PGDA Working Papers 1206, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    25. Cedric Tille, 1999. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of shocks," Staff Reports 67, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    Keywords

    Financial markets ; Asia ; China;

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