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John Fernald

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Personal Details

First Name:John
Middle Name:
Last Name:Fernald
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pfe43
http://www.frbsf.org/economics/economists/jfernald.html
Research Department 11th Floor Mail Stop 1130 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market St San Francisco, CA 94105
(415)974-2135
San Francisco, California (United States)
http://www.frbsf.org/economics/

: (415) 974-3190
(415) 974-2168
P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
RePEc:edi:erfsfus (more details at EDIRC)
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  1. Byrne, David M. & Fernald, John G. & Reinsdorf, Marshall B., 2016. "Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?," Working Paper Series 2016-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. G. Cette & J. Fernald & B. Mojon, 2016. "The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity," Working papers 586, Banque de France.
  3. Bosler, Canyon & Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Hobijn, Bart, 2016. "The Outlook for U.S. Labor-quality Growth," Working Paper Series 2016-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Bart Hobijn & John Fernald, 2015. "World TFP," 2015 Meeting Papers 1235, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Fernald, John G. & Wang, J. Christina, 2015. "Why has the cyclicality of productivity changed?: what does it mean?," Current Policy Perspectives 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  6. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Working Paper Series 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of U.S. Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 19830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: evidence from a FAVAR model," Working Paper Series 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jorda, Oscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Labor markets in the global financial crisis: the good, the bad and the ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Oscar Jorda & John Fernald & Fernanda Nechio & Mary Daly, 2013. "Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment," 2013 Meeting Papers 1155, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Zheng Liu & John Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2012. "Technology Shocks in a Two-Sector DSGE Model," 2012 Meeting Papers 1017, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. John G. Fernald, 2012. "Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2012-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. John Gregg Fernald, 2011. "What Happens when Technology Improves?," 2011 Meeting Papers 487, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know and not know about potential output?," Working Paper Series 2009-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2006. "Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data," Working Paper Series 2006-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  18. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. John Fernald, 2004. "Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks," 2004 Meeting Papers 477, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Jonas Fisher & John Fernald, 2004. "New Evidence on Durable Goods Biased Technological Change," 2004 Meeting Papers 55, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. J. Christina Wang & Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2004. "A general-equilibrium asset-pricing approach to the measurement of nominal and real bank output," Working Papers 04-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  23. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. John G. Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2003. "Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?," Working Paper Series WP-03-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  25. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The case of the missing productivity growth: or, does information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?," Working Paper Series WP-03-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  26. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment," Working Paper Series WP-01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  28. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2000. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," Working Paper Series WP-00-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  29. John G. Fernald & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. John G. Fernald & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Puzzles in the Chinese stock market," International Finance Discussion Papers 619, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. John G. Fernald & Hali J. Edison & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1997. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," International Finance Discussion Papers 593, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. John G. Fernald, 1997. "Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 592, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1995. "Aggregate productivity and the productivity of aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 532, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1994. "Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing," International Finance Discussion Papers 483, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1994. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," International Finance Discussion Papers 463, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  1. Fernald, John G. & Wang, Bing, 2015. "The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1 - 51.
  3. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
  4. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jorda, Oscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2014. "Has China’s economy become more “standard”?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228(1), pages R58-R64, May.
  7. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
  8. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jorda, Oscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2013. "Labor markets in the global financial crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. John G. Fernald & Israel Malkin & Mark M. Spiegel, 2013. "On the reliability of Chinese output figures," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar25.
  10. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 29-74, April.
  11. Titan Alon & John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & J. Christina Wang, 2011. "What is the value of bank output?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may16.
  12. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know (and not know) about potential output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 187-214.
  13. John G. Fernald & Kyle Matoba, 2009. "Growth accounting, potential output, and the current recession," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug17.
  14. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
  15. Mark Doms & John G. Fernald & Jose A. Lopez, 2007. "Financial innovations and the real economy: conference summary," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar2.
  16. John G. Fernald & David Thipphavong & Bharat Trehan, 2007. "Will fast productivity growth persist?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr6.
  17. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2007. "Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from US Industry Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 146-173, 05.
  18. John G. Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2006. "Is a recession imminent?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov24.
  19. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
  20. John G. Fernald & Stephanie Wang, 2005. "Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec9.
  21. John G. Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2005. "Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.
  22. John G. Fernald & Shanthi Ramnath, 2004. "The acceleration in U.S. total productivity after 1995: the role of information technology," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 52-67.
  23. John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 2004. "Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
  24. John G. Fernald & Shanthi Ramnath, 2003. "Information technology and the U.S. productivity acceleration," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
  25. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 2002. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 963-991, June.
  26. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
  27. John G. Fernald & Victoria G. Greenfield, 2001. "The fall and rise of the global economy," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
  28. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.
  29. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 2001. "Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 38-52.
  30. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
  31. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  32. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  33. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August.
  1. Canyon Bosler & Mary Daly & John Fernald & Bart Hobijn, 2015. "The Outlook for U.S. Labor Quality Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Fernald, 2015. "Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 90-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 1-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. J. Christina Wang & Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output," NBER Chapters, in: Price Index Concepts and Measurement, pages 273-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States But Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 39 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-EFF: Efficiency & Productivity (19) 2001-05-16 2001-10-22 2001-10-22 2003-10-20 2004-06-02 2006-11-25 2009-01-10 2010-07-24 2012-10-13 2012-10-13 2014-06-22 2014-06-28 2015-11-15 2016-01-18 2016-03-29 2016-04-04 2016-04-09 2016-05-21 2016-05-28. Author is listed
  2. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (15) 2004-01-18 2004-01-18 2006-04-29 2009-01-10 2009-04-05 2012-10-13 2012-10-13 2014-03-22 2014-06-22 2014-06-28 2014-12-19 2016-01-18 2016-04-09 2016-05-21 2016-05-28. Author is listed
  3. NEP-DGE: Dynamic General Equilibrium (8) 1998-11-20 2001-02-08 2001-09-10 2004-06-27 2005-05-23 2009-01-10 2010-07-24 2016-01-18. Author is listed
  4. NEP-SEA: South East Asia (7) 2003-11-30 2004-01-18 2004-01-18 2005-05-23 2006-07-09 2007-04-28 2010-07-24. Author is listed
  5. NEP-INO: Innovation (6) 2001-09-10 2003-09-24 2006-11-25 2016-04-04 2016-04-09 2016-05-21. Author is listed
  6. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (5) 2005-05-23 2005-12-01 2009-01-10 2012-10-13 2016-01-18. Author is listed
  7. NEP-DEV: Development (5) 2001-07-13 2003-11-30 2004-01-18 2006-07-09 2010-07-24. Author is listed
  8. NEP-TRA: Transition Economics (5) 2004-01-18 2004-01-18 2014-03-22 2014-12-19 2015-10-10. Author is listed
  9. NEP-EEC: European Economics (4) 2003-09-24 2003-11-30 2016-04-09 2016-05-21
  10. NEP-FDG: Financial Development & Growth (4) 2009-04-05 2010-07-24 2014-06-22 2014-06-28
  11. NEP-GRO: Economic Growth (4) 2014-02-02 2014-02-15 2014-06-22 2014-06-28
  12. NEP-TID: Technology & Industrial Dynamics (4) 1998-11-20 2001-02-08 2001-07-13 2001-09-10
  13. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (3) 2006-04-29 2009-04-05 2014-12-19
  14. NEP-CNA: China (3) 2007-04-28 2014-12-19 2015-10-10
  15. NEP-IFN: International Finance (3) 1998-10-15 2004-01-18 2004-01-18
  16. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (2) 1998-10-15 2001-02-08
  17. NEP-INT: International Trade (2) 2006-07-09 2007-04-28
  18. NEP-KNM: Knowledge Management & Knowledge Economy (2) 2006-11-25 2014-02-15
  19. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (2) 2014-03-22 2014-12-19
  20. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (2) 2015-11-15 2016-05-21
  21. NEP-SBM: Small Business Management (2) 2016-04-09 2016-05-21
  22. NEP-BAN: Banking (1) 2009-01-10
  23. NEP-FIN: Finance (1) 2001-02-08
  24. NEP-LAB: Labour Economics (1) 2014-05-17
  25. NEP-LMA: Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages (1) 2016-05-28
  26. NEP-PAY: Payment Systems & Financial Technology (1) 2016-03-29
  27. NEP-SOG: Sociology of Economics (1) 2014-02-15
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