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The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

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  • John G. Fernald
  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of U.S. Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 19830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19830
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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