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The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

  • John G. Fernald
  • Charles I. Jones

Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19830.

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Date of creation: Jan 2014
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Publication status: published as John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19830
Note: EFG
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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  3. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the information technology revolution over?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, And Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117, November.
  5. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2013. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 19136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
  8. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:61-103 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
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