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Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth

Author

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  • Alberto Bucci

    (University of Milan
    CEIS (Centre for Economic and International Studies), University of Rome-‘Tor Vergata’
    RCEA (Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis), Wilfrid Laurier University)

  • Klaus Prettner

    (University of Hohenheim)

Abstract

To reconcile the predictions of research and development (R&D)-based growth theory regarding the impact of population growth on productivity growth with the available empirical evidence, we propose a tractable, continuous-time, multisector, R&D-based growth model with endogenous education and endogenous fertility. As long as the human capital dilution effect is sufficiently weak, faster population growth may lead to faster aggregate human capital accumulation, to faster technological progress, and, thus, to a higher growth rate of productivity. By contrast, when the human capital dilution effect becomes sufficiently strong, faster population growth slows down aggregate human capital accumulation, dampens the rate of technical change, and, thus, reduces productivity growth. Therefore, the model can account for the possibly negative correlation between population growth and productivity growth in R&D-based growth models depending on the strength of the human capital dilution effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:33:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s00148-019-00762-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-019-00762-5
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    1. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    2. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Tabata, Ken, 2022. "Demographic structure, knowledge diffusion, and endogenous productivity growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human capital; Endogenous fertility; R&D-driven productivity growth; Non-monotonic growth effects of fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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