IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies

  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Gori, Luca

We examine the effects of child policies on both the transitional dynamics and long-run demo-economic outcomes in the conventional overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth extended with endogenous longevity and endogenous fertility. The government invests in public health (Chakraborty, 2004) and the individual survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure through an S-shaped longevity function. This may give rise to four steady states and, hence, development traps are possible. However, poverty or prosperity may not depend on initial conditions, while being the result of a child policy design. In particular, a child tax can be used to effectively allow those economies that were entrapped into poverty to prosper irrespective of where they start from.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26146/1/MPRA_paper_26146.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26146.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26146
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Strauss, J. & Thomas, D., 1995. "Health, Nutrition and Economic development," Papers 95-23, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
  2. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. DE LA CROIX, David & PONTHIÈRE, Grégory, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," CORE Discussion Papers 2008049, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Tamara Fioroni, 2010. "Child mortality and fertility: public vs private education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
  5. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
  6. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
  7. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September.
  8. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
  9. Dennis Tao Yang & Marjorie McElroy, 2000. "Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 389-392, May.
  10. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
  11. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:8:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2004. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," NBER Working Papers 10231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
  16. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
  17. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 4160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Nishimura, K. & Zhang, J., 1990. "Pay-As-You-Go Public Pensions With Endogenous Fertility," Papers 202, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  19. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," MPRA Paper 20221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521808781 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
  22. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Peters, Wolfgang, 1995. "Public Pensions, Family Allowances and Endogenous Demographic Change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 161-83, May.
  24. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  25. Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pérez Sebastián, Fidel, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics, and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 859-872, October.
  26. Bas Groezen & Lex Meijdam, 2008. "Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 573-588, July.
  27. David Croix & Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 899-922, July.
  28. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory & SATO, Motohiro, . "Longevity, health spending, and pay-as-you-go pensions," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  29. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Macroeconomics 0212008, EconWPA.
  30. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," MPRA Paper 25811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. G. Abío & Geraldine Mahieu & Cio Patxot, 2003. "On the Optimality of PAYG Pension Systems in an Endogenous Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 1050, CESifo Group Munich.
  32. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2005. "Pensions and fertility incentives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 28-48, February.
  33. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
  34. Feldstein, Martin, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Scholarly Articles 2794830, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  35. Xiaoyu Wu & Lixing Li, 2012. "Family size and maternal health: evidence from the One-Child policy in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1341-1364, October.
  36. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2004. "Fertility, Taxation and Family Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 745-763, December.
  37. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
  38. Andreoni, James, 1989. "Giving with Impure Altruism: Applications to Charity and Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1447-58, December.
  39. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2009. "Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 137-163, April.
  40. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
  41. Bental, Benjamin, 1989. "The Old Age Security Hypothesis and Optimal Population Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 285-301.
  42. Alessandro Cigno, 2009. "How to Avoid a Pension Crisis: A Question of Intelligent System Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 2590, CESifo Group Munich.
  43. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2004. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 9, Econometric Society.
  44. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  45. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  46. Michael C.M. Leung & Yong Wang, 2010. "Endogenous Health Care, Life Expectancy And Economic Growth," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 11-31, 02.
  47. Eckstein, Zvi & Stern, Steven & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1988. "Fertility Choice, Land, and the Malthusian Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 353-61, May.
  48. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2008. "The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 557-572, July.
  49. Ehrlich, Isaac, 2000. "Uncertain lifetime, life protection, and the value of life saving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 341-367, May.
  50. Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
  51. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  52. Momota, Michiko, 2000. "The gender gap, fertility, subsidies and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-405, December.
  53. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2004. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 100, Econometric Society.
  54. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "PAYG pensions, tax-cum-subsidy and optimality," MPRA Paper 20219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
  56. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2006. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 12269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2010. "Mixing Bismarck and child pension systems: an optimum taxation approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 805-823, March.
  58. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
  59. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2012. "PAYG pensions, tax-cum-subsidy and A-Pareto efficiency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 65-71.
  60. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  61. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, June.
  62. Makoto Hirazawa & Akira Yakita, 2009. "Fertility, child care outside the home, and pay-as-you-go social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 565-583, July.
  63. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
  64. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Qiao, Xue, 2005. "Public and Private Expenditures on Health in a Growth Model," Staff General Research Papers 12378, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  65. Akira Yakita, 2001. "Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 635-640.
  66. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
  67. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0217, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  68. Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 175-83, August.
  69. Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
  70. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Endogenous Lifetime in an Overlapping-Generations Small Open Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 121-152, June.
  71. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2011. "The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 351-369, 08.
  72. Makoto Hirazawa & Koji Kitaura & Akira Yakita, 2010. "Aging, fertility, social security and political equilibrium," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 559-569, March.
  73. Junsen Zhang & Junxi Zhang, 1998. "Social Security, Intergenerational Transfers, and Endogenous Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1225-1241, November.
  74. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
  75. Hung-Ju Chen, 2010. "Life expectancy, fertility, and educational investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-56, January.
  76. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
  77. Helle Bunzel & Xue Qiao, 2005. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(8), pages 1-8.
  78. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
  79. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521898010 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
  81. Cigno, Alessandro, 1993. "Intergenerational transfers without altruism : Family, market and state," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 505-518, November.
  82. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521001151 is not listed on IDEAS
  83. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  85. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521004886 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-59, October.
  87. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
  88. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2009. "Population and neoclassical economic growth: A new child policy perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 27-30, July.
  89. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521725200 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 13, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  91. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1992. "The Effects of Financial Markets and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 319-41.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.