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The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility

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  • Spataro Luca

    (Università di Pisa, Lungarno Antonio Pacinotti, 43,Pisa PI, Italy)

  • Fanti Luciano

    (Università di Pisa,Pisa PI, Italy)

Abstract

In the present work we extend Diamond’s OLG model by allowing for endogenous fertility and look at the consequences of such an extension on the rules for optimal public debt issuing. In particular, we show that the condition according to which the rate of growth of population should be higher than the interest rate is no longer sufficient for obtaining welfare improvements via debt increases and that the level of optimal debt is, ceteris paribus, lower than the one arising with exogenous fertility. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the optimal level of debt is higher the lower the capital share, the higher individuals’ degree of patience, the bigger the child-rearing cost and the lower the preference for children. On policy grounds we argue that debt-tightening policies may be optimal in the long run provided that the cost of rearing children does not increase (or, if anything, does decrease).

Suggested Citation

  • Spataro Luca & Fanti Luciano, 2011. "The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 351-369, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:12:y:2011:i:3:p:351-369
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2011.00534.x
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    2. Thomas Renström & Luca Spataro, 2013. "Population Growth and Technological Change: a Pure Welfarist Approach," CEMAP Working Papers 2013_03, Durham University Business School.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    4. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Endogenous Lifetime in an Overlapping-Generations Small Open Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 121-152, June.
    5. Fanti, Luciano & Spataro, Luca, 2013. "On the relationship between fertility and public national debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 843-849.
    6. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
    7. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "An OLG model of growth with longevity: when grandparents take care of grandchildren," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(1), pages 39-51, April.
    8. Manuela Gussoni & Andrea Mangani, 2012. "The Impact of Public Funding for Innovation on Firms' R&D Investments: Do R&D Cooperation and Appropriability Matter?," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 237-254.
    9. Gori, Luca & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Parsimonious Model Of Longevity, Fertility, Hiv Transmission And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1174, July.
    10. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2013. "From Malthusian to Modern fertility: When intergenerational transfers matter," Discussion Papers 2013/163, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of health and child policies," Discussion Papers 2009/91, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2008. "PAYG pensions and economic cycles: exogenous versus endogenous fertility," Discussion Papers 2008/75, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

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