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Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability

Author

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  • Luciano Fanti
  • Luca Gori

Abstract

In this paper, we study a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, endogenous fertility and public pensions. By assuming Cobb–Douglas technology and logarithmic preferences, we show that the introduction of a fertility-related component in the pay-as-you-go pension scheme may destabilise the long-term equilibrium and cause endogenous fluctuations when individuals have static expectations. The possibility of cyclical instability increases (resp. reduces) when both the subjective discount factor and relative weight of individual fertility in pay-as-you-go pensions (resp. the parents’ taste for children) increase(s). Interestingly, when public pensions are contingent on the individual number of children, the financing of small-sized benefits may cause the occurrence of a flip bifurcation, two-period cycles and cycles of a higher order. In addition, we show through numerical simulations that these results hold in a more general setting with a constant inter-temporal elasticity of substitution utility function and a constant elasticity of substitution production function. Our findings identify a possible novel factor responsible for persistent deterministic fluctuations in a context of overlapping generations, while also representing a policy warning regarding the destabilising effects of fertility-related pension reforms, which are currently high in both the theoretical debate and the political agendas of several developed countries. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:1209-1232
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0462-4
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    3. Kontogiannis, Nikolaos & Litina, Anastasia & Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Occupation-induced status, social norms, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 348-360.
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    5. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2022. "Social security and endogenous demographic change: child support and retirement policies," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 307-325, July.
    6. Luciano, Fanti & Luca, Gori & Cristiana, Mammana & Elisabetta, Michetti, 2016. "Complex dynamics in an OLG model of growth with inherited tastes," MPRA Paper 69906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gori, Luca & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Parsimonious Model Of Longevity, Fertility, Hiv Transmission And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1174, July.
    8. Cigno, A., 2016. "Conflict and Cooperation Within the Family, and Between the State and the Family, in the Provision of Old-Age Security," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-660, Elsevier.
    9. Luciano Fanti, 2014. "Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long-run Income and Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) Pensions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 619-645, November.
    10. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "An OLG model of growth with longevity: when grandparents take care of grandchildren," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(1), pages 39-51, April.
    11. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2014. "The migration challenge for PAYG," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1023-1038, October.
    12. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2017. "Endogenous cycles and human capital," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 31-45, January.
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    14. Edouard A. Ribes, 2022. "Financial planning and optimal retirement timing for physically intensive occupations," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-28, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous fertility; Fertility-related pensions; Static expectations; OLG model; C62; H55; J14; J18; J26;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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