Aging, Myopia, and the Pay-As-You-Go Public Pension Systems of the G7: A Bright Future?
Public pension systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when contributors far outnumbered beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an endogenous growth overlapping generations model. We analyze individuals' behavior when their expectations regarding longevity are rational or myopic, and examine whether policies exist that can offset any adverse effects of aging. We find that while perfectly anticipated aging is welfare improving, myopia worsens welfare, puts pension systems at risk, and cannot be easily remedied by public policy. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Inc..
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 7 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1097-3923|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1097-3923|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nishimura, K. & Zhang, J., 1990.
"Pay-As-You-Go Public Pensions With Endogenous Fertility,"
202, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
- Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
- Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
- Paul R Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001.
NBER Working Papers
8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Rangel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999.
"Can Market and Voting Institutions Generate Optimal Intergenerational Risk Sharing?,"
NBER Working Papers
6949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Rangel & Richard Zeckhauser, 2001. "Can Market and Voting Institutions Generate Optimal Intergenerational Risk Sharing?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Rangel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999. "Can Market and Voting Institutions Generate Optimal Intergenerational Risk Sharing?," Working Papers 99003, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Frédéric Docquier & Philippe Michel, 1999.
"Education subsidies, social security and growth: the implications of a demographic shock,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/230709, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Docquier, Frederic & Michel, Philippe, 1999. " Education Subsidies, Social Security and Growth: The Implications of a Demographic Shock," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 425-40, September.
- Kaganovich, M & Zilcha, I, 1997.
"Education, Social Security and Growth,"
1-97, Tel Aviv.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
- Michele Boldrin, 1993.
"Public Education and Capital Accumulation,"
9301, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Michele Boldrin, 1992. "Public Education and Capital Accumulation," Discussion Papers 1017, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Michele Boldrin, 2005. "Public Education and Capital Accumulation," Levine's Bibliography 172782000000000090, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Pecchenino, R.A., 1994.
"Social Security, Social Welfare and the Aging Population,"
9403, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kelvin R. Utendorf & Rowena A. Pecchenino, 1999. "Social security, social welfare and the aging population," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 607-623.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
- Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
- Ketil Hviding & Marcel Mérette, 1998. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 201, OECD Publishing.
- Sheng-Cheng Hu, 1996. "Myopia and Social Security Financing," Public Finance Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 319-348, July.
- Brugiavini, Agar, 1993. "Uncertainty resolution and the timing of annuity purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 31-62, January.
- CREMER, Helmuth & KESSLER, Denis & PESTIEAU, Pierre, .
"Intergenerational transfers within the family,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
970, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
- Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000.
"Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy,"
1995-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pecchenino, Rowena A. & Pollard, Patricia S., 2002. "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 145-169, June.
- Laitner, John & Juster, F Thomas, 1996.
"New Evidence on Altruism: A Study of TIAA-CREF Retirees,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 893-908, September.
- John Laitner & F. Thomas Juster, 1993. "New evidence on altruism: a study of TIAA-CREF retirees," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 86, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001.
"Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously,"
NBER Working Papers
8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1985. "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 303-320.
- Hubbard, R Glenn & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, Borrowing Constraints, and the Payroll Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 630-46, September.
- Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-18, May.
- Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:7:y:2005:i:3:p:449-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.