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Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries

  • Ketil Hviding
  • Marcel Mérette
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    Using overlapping generations (OLG) models calibrated on seven OECD countries -- the United States, Japan, France, Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom and Sweden -- the authors investigate the macroeconomic impact of possible pension reform strategies as populations age. Simulations include a reduction in the level of pensions, phased abolition of PAYG schemes and general fiscal consolidation. By raising the national saving rate future GDP levels are higher, but not enough to offset the affects of ageing. A rise in the retirement age has larger effects, but implies significant loss of leisure time ... En utilisant des modèles à générations imbriquées pour sept pays de l'OCDE -- Etats-Unis, Japon, France, Canada, Italie, Royaume-Uni et Suède -- les auteurs analysent les effets macro-économiques des différentes réformes de systèmes des pensions dans un contexte de vieillissement de la population. Les simulations considèrent une réduction des niveaux de pensions, une élimination graduelle des systèmes à répartition et une réduction généralisée des dépenses publiques. Dans la mesure où ces réformes augmentent les taux d'épargne, les niveaux futurs du PIB seront plus élevés, mais pas suffisamment pour compenser les effets du vieillissement de la population. Le recul de l'âge officiel de la retraite aurait un effet plus important, mais aussi des implications négatives sur le temps disponible pour les loisirs ...

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/638376177076
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    Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 201.

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    Date of creation: 23 Jun 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:201-en
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