The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy
In this paper the likely development of aggregate living standards in the United Kingdom over the course of this century are considered, and some of the risks to this outlook. It is argued that even under relatively cautious assumptions about technological progress and capital accumulation, aggregate living standards (as measured by GDP per head) are set to double over the next 50 years. While there are clear risks to this aggregate outlook, these would be present even without demographic change. The risks to the living standards of individuals and individual cohorts are also discussed. These risks have changed in three main ways as a result of demographic change. First, ageing has been a factor throughout the world in encouraging a shift from public to private provision for old age, increasing the proportion of retired people exposed to risks to market prices and rates of return. Second, the size of the group exposed to such risks is growing larger as a direct result of ageing. Third, any adverse effects of demographic change are most likely to be felt in old age; one of the effects of people living longer is that they have to spread their lifetime incomes over more years of life, implying a need for more saving when working. If this does not occur, then consumption has to be considerably lower in old age than would have been the case had proper provision been made for retirement.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999.
"Consumption Over the Life Cycle,"
NBER Working Papers
7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 00/18, International Monetary Fund.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989.
"The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge,"
553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
- Miles, David K, 1997.
"Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving: a tale of two countries," IFS Working Papers W98/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001.
"Aging and International Capital Flows,"
605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
- Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Axel BÃ¶rsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- M De Nardi & S Imrohoroglu & TJ Sargent, 2001. "Saving and pension reform in general equilibrium models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 20-39, Spring.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1996.
"Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
NBER Working Papers
5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
- Christopher D Carroll, 1990. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
- Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003.
"Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
- Martin MÃ¼hleisen & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Population Aging in Japan; Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 01/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001.
"Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?,"
NBER Working Papers
8131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will bequests attenuate the predicted meltdown in stock prices when baby boomers retire?," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Deaton, A., 1989.
"Saving And Liquidity Constraints,"
153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- James Banks & Richard Blundell & Sarah Tanner, 1995.
"Is there a retirement-savings puzzle?,"
IFS Working Papers
W95/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Ketil Hviding & Marcel Mérette, 1998. "Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms in The Context of Ageing Populations: Overlapping Generations Model Simulations for Seven OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 201, OECD Publishing.
- Richard Kohl & Paul O'Brien, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Ageing, Pensions and Savings: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
- Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
- French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991.
"Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-26, May.
- Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Banks, James & Rohwedder, Susann, 2001. "Life-cycle saving patterns and pension arrangements in the U.K," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 83-107, March.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.