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The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context

Listed author(s):
  • Dave Turner
  • Claude Giorno
  • Alain de Serres
  • Ann Vourc'h
  • Pete Richardson

This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD and policies which might ameliorate or reverse underlying tensions. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on the Secretariat’s new international dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model (MINILINK). A “business-as-usual” case is examined in which, without improvements in labour market performance or specific policy adjustments to allow for the pressures of ageing, economic growth is projected to slow significantly over the next 50 years in nearly all OECD countries; world real interest rates remain stable at current levels or even rise, because of the effects of ageing on private savings and the possible build-up of public ... Ce travail constitue une contribution du Département économique à l’étude réalisée au niveau de l’ensemble de l’Organisation sur les conséquences économiques du vieillissement des populations. Il présente un certain nombre de scénarios de long-terme illustrant d’une part les effets macroéconomiques probables du processus de viellisssement sur les plans national et international, sur les flux internationaux entre les régions OCDE et non OCDE et d’autre part le rôle des politiques économiques pour limiter ou éliminer les tensions générées par ce processus. Cette étude intègre dans un même cadre cohérent, basé sur le nouveau modèle international d’équilibre général dynamique du Secrétariat (MINILINK), un large ensemble d’éléments constitutifs du phénomène de vieillissement. Le cas d’une scénario “à politique inchangé” est analysé. Il met en évidence qu’en l’absence d’amélioration des performances du marché du travail ou d’ajustement spécifique des politiques pour faire face aux ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 193.

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Date of creation: 20 Mar 1998
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:193-en
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