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Aging and International Capital Flows

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with longterm demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closedeconomy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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File URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1006/1/605.pdf
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Paper provided by Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre in its series Discussion Papers with number 605.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1006
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  1. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
  2. Holzmann, Robert, 2000. "Can investments in emerging markets help to solve the aging problem ?," Social Protection Discussion Papers 23070, The World Bank.
  3. Axel Boersch-Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, 05.
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  9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
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  11. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  12. Maddison, Angus, 1987. "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 649-98, June.
  13. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  14. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
  15. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
  16. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June.
  17. Helmut Reisen, 2000. "Pensions, Savings and Capital Flows," Books, Edward Elgar, number 2017, March.
  18. Miles, David & Iben, Andreas, 2000. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers across Generations in the United Kingdom and Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 203-28, May.
  19. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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