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Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Attanasio Orazio P.

    () (University College London)

  • Kitao Sagiri

    () (New York University)

  • Violante Giovanni L.

    () (New York University)

Abstract

This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

Suggested Citation

  • Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:advances.6:y:2006:i:1:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Steven F. Venti, 2010. "Comment on "Aging Populations, Pension Operations, Potential Economic Disappointment and Its Allocation"," NBER Chapters,in: Demography and the Economy, pages 326-331 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters,in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    5. Hiroyuki Ito & Ken Tabata, 2010. "The spillover effects of population aging, international capital flows, and welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 665-702, March.
    6. Kam Ki Tang & Michael Graff & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4111, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    8. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_179 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andy Mason & Sang-Hyop Lee & Ronald Lee, 2010. "Will Demographic Change Undermine Asia’s Growth Prospects?," Chapters,in: Asian Regionalism in the World Economy, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Orazio P. Attanasio & Andrea Bonfatti & Sagiri Kitao & Guglielmo Weber, 2015. "Global Demographic Trends, Capital Mobility, Saving and Consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6945, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Henning Bohn, 2006. "Optimal Private Responses to Demographic Trends: Savings, Bequests and International Mobility," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Nishiyama, Shinichi, 2015. "Fiscal policy effects in a heterogeneous-agent OLG economy with an aging population," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-132.
    14. Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Mérette Marcel & Georges Patrick, 2010. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Analysis of Ageing, Capital Flows, and International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-39, October.
    16. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2008. "Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2031-2060, June.
    17. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2008. "Beggar thy thrifty neighbour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 933-959, October.
    18. Börsch-Supan Axel & Ludwig Alexander, 2009. "Living Standards in an Aging Germany: The Benefits of Reforms and the Costs of Resistance," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 163-179, April.
    19. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    20. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    21. Axel BÖRSCH-SUPAN & Alexander LUDWIG, 2009. "Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View From Europe to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 69-92.
    22. Orazio P. Attanasio & Andrea Bonfatti & Sagiri Kitao & Guglielmo Weber, 2015. "Global Demographic Trends, Capital Mobility, Saving and Consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 89358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2010. "The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 19-55 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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