IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12453.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Dirk Krueger
  • Alexander Ludwig

Abstract

This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12453
    Note: EFG PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12453.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999. "Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
    2. Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    4. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    5. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    8. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    9. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    10. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
    12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
    13. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Krueger, Dirk, 2006. "On the optimal progressivity of the income tax code," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1425-1450, October.
    14. Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
    15. Martin Flodén, 2003. "Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Aging Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 379-400, September.
    16. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:7-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Huang, He & Ä°Mrohorogë‡Lu, Selahattin & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 7-44, January.
    18. Alan Auerbach & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2002. "Auerbach-Kotlikoff Model," QM&RBC Codes 90, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    19. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    20. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 1-3.
    21. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    22. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
    23. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    24. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    25. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "The Gauss-Seidel-quasi-Newton method: A hybrid algorithm for solving dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1610-1632, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200618 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    3. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    4. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2009. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 385-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Bã–Rsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    6. Vogel, Edgar, 2014. "Optimal Level of Government Debt: Matching Wealth Inequality and the Fiscal Sector," MEA discussion paper series 201410, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    8. Heer, Burkhard & Irmen, Andreas, 2014. "Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-72.
    9. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    10. Vogel, Edgar, 2014. "Optimal level of government debt - matching wealth inequality and the fiscal sector," Working Paper Series 1665, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:mea:meawpa:12257 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ludwig, Alexander & Schelkle, Thomas & Vogel, Edgar, 2007. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-43, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    13. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for International Capital Flows, Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," 2006 Meeting Papers 643, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
    17. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2011. "Aging and Pension Reform in a Two-Region World: The Role of Human Capital," MEA discussion paper series 11246, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    18. Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard & Henri R. Sneessens, 2011. "Demography, capital flows and unemployment," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    19. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    21. Sabzalizad Honarvar , Sonia & Raghfar , Hossein & Mousavi , Mirhossein, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Parametric Pension Reform in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(4), pages 455-479, October.
    22. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.