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Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation

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  • Vogel, Edgar
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

Abstract

Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital- labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse welfare consequences for current middle aged asset rich agents. This paper addresses three important adjustments channels to dampen these detrimental effects of demographic change: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation and increasing the retirement age. Our quantitative finding is that openness has a relatively mild effect. In contrast, endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong effects. Under these adjustments maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 are reduced by about 3 percentage points. JEL Classification: C68, E17, E25, J11, J24

Suggested Citation

  • Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2012. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Working Paper Series 1476, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121476
    Note: 850633
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    human capital; open economy; pension reform; Population aging; retirement age; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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