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Macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic change in an open economy—the case of Belgium

Author

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  • Devriendt, Willem
  • Heylen, Freddy

Abstract

We construct and parameterize an overlapping generations model for an open economy with individuals who differ in innate ability. Key endogenous variables are hours worked, investment in human and physical capital, and per capita growth. The model replicates important data in Belgium since 1960 remarkably well. Simulating it, we observe that behavioral adjustments by households and firms contribute to reverse the negative arithmetical effect of future demographic change on per capita growth. Individuals work and study more. However, with unchanged policies, there remains a net negative effect on annual per capita growth of almost 0.3%-points on average in the next 25 years. This is mainly due to adverse consequences of reduced fertility and a declining working-age population on (the return to) physical capital investment. Model projections also point to rising income inequality induced by demographic change. Differences in the capacity of individuals to respond to increasing life expectancy by investing in education, and by saving, are key.

Suggested Citation

  • Devriendt, Willem & Heylen, Freddy, 2020. "Macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic change in an open economy—the case of Belgium," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 87-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:86:y:2020:i:1:p:87-124_3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schön, Matthias, 2019. "Demographic change and the German current account surplus," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203527, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Md Jamil, Abd Rahim & Law, Siong Hook & Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2024. "Financial inclusion and income inequality in developing countries: The role of aging populations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Guizhen Ma & Erin Trouth Hofmann & Annie Laurie Hines & Ethan Sharygin & Jack A. Goldstone & Justin Gest, 2025. "Demographic and Economic Implications of Alternative U.S. Immigration Policies," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(5), pages 1-26, October.
    7. Devriendt, Willem & Heylen, Freddy & Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Coping with demographic change: macroeconomic performance and welfare inequality effects of public pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 425-449, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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