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Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth

Listed author(s):
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Mourinho Félix, Ricardo
  • Marchiori, Luca
  • Grech, Owen
  • Albani, Maria
  • Other contributors
  • Kulikov, Dmitry
  • Papadopoulou, Niki
  • Sideris, Dimitris
  • Irac, Delphine
  • Gordo Mora, Esther
  • Vogel, Edgar
  • Guarda, Paolo
  • González Pandiella, Alberto
  • Kilponen, Juha
  • Rodano, Lisa

This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a disaggregated growth accounting exercise suggests that the impact of population ageing on medium-term growth can be mitigated by structural reforms boosting labour force participation. Finally, general equilibrium models suggest that pay-as-you-go public pension systems will require reforms combining lower benefits, a later retirement age and higher social contributions. These findings suggest several policy recommendations: (a) JEL Classification: E17, E23, E24, E62, F47, J1

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 165.

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Date of creation: Aug 2015
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2015165
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