IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis


  • Romain Bouis


  • Orsetta Causa


  • Lilas Demmou


  • Romain Duval


  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka

    (Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales)


Drawing on new empirical analysis of 30 years of structural reforms across the OECD, this paper sheds light on the impact of reforms over time, identifies the horizon over which their full effects materialise, and investigates whether such effects vary with prevailing economic conditions and institutions. Impulse responses of aggregate outcomes (GDP growth, employment rate) to various labour, product market and tax reforms are estimated at different horizons. This analysis indicates that the benefits from reforms typically take time to fully materialise. When significant effects are found in the short run, reforms seldom involve significant aggregate economic losses; on the contrary they often deliver some benefits. The absence of major depressing effects does not lend support to the view that reforms should be in general accompanied by substantial macroeconomic policy easing in order to deliver some short-term gains. Nevertheless, there is also tentative evidence that some labour market reforms (e.g. of unemployment benefit systems and job protection) pay off more quickly in good times than in bad times, and can even entail short-term losses in severely depressed economies. L'impact à court terme des réformes structurelles : une analyse empirique Cet article s’appuie sur des données portant sur trente années de reformes structurelles dans les pays de l’OCDE et analyse l’impact de ces reformes au cours du temps. Nous cherchons plus particulièrement à identifier l’horizon temporel à partir duquel ces effets se matérialisent ainsi qu’à déterminer la façon dont le positionnement dans le cycle économique ou les arrangements institutionnels en vigueur dans chaque pays affectent les résultats. L’analyse empirique repose sur l’estimation, à différents horizons temporels, de taux de réponse des variables de performances (taux de croissance du PIB, taux d’emploi) à des reformes mises en oeuvre dans le domaine fiscal, sur le marché du travail ainsi que sur le marché des produits. D’après nos résultats, les effets des reformes mettent généralement du temps à se matérialiser. Lorsque des effets significatifs sont obtenus dès le court terme, l’analyse indique que les réformes ne génèrent que très rarement des coûts macroéconomiques alors qu’un certain nombre d’entre elles produisent rapidement des bénéfices. L’absence d’effet récessif majeur semble donc infirmer l’idée selon laquelle les reformes devraient généralement être accompagnées de politiques macroéconomiques accommodantes permettant de compenser les coûts qui y seraient associés. Cependant, les résultats indiquent également que les effets bénéfiques des réformes du marché du travail (tels que celles du système d’assurance chômage ou de la protection du travail) se matérialisent surtout dans des situations de croissance économique alors qu’une détérioration des performances à court terme peut survenir lorsqu’elles sont appliquées en période de ralentissement économique.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 949, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:949-en

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:949-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.