Modelling and Forecasting Yield Differentials in the euro area. A non-linear Global VAR model
Unstability in the comovement among bond spreads in the euro area is an important feature for dynamic econometric modelling and forecasting. This paper proposes a non-linear GVAR approach to spreads in the euro area where the changing interdepence among these variables is modelled by making each country spread function of a global variable determined by fiscal fundamentals with a time-varying composition. The model naturally accommodates the possibility of multiple equilibria in the relation between default premia and local fiscal fundamentals. The estimation reveals a significant non-linear relation between spreads and fiscal fundamentals that generates time-varying impulse response of local spreads to shocks in other euro area countries spreads. The GVAR framework is then applied to the analysis of the dynamic effects of fiscal stabilization packages on the cost of government borrowing and to the evaluation of the importance of potential contagion effects determining a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to a group of countries.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)|
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007.
"Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
- Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
- Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 568, European Central Bank.
- Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
- Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 341-356, August.
- Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro Area: in good times as in bad," Kiel Working Papers 1548, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
- Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hiebert, Paul & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Working Paper Series 731, European Central Bank.
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
- David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
- Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro Area. Which prospects for a Eurobond?," Working Papers 424, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Missale, Alessandro, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro area: Which prospects for a Eurobond?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)