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Modelling and Forecasting Yield Differentials in the euro area. A non-linear Global VAR model

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  • Carlo A. Favero

Abstract

Unstability in the comovement among bond spreads in the euro area is an important feature for dynamic econometric modelling and forecasting. This paper proposes a non-linear GVAR approach to spreads in the euro area where the changing interdepence among these variables is modelled by making each country spread function of a global variable determined by fiscal fundamentals with a time-varying composition. The model naturally accommodates the possibility of multiple equilibria in the relation between default premia and local fiscal fundamentals. The estimation reveals a significant non-linear relation between spreads and fiscal fundamentals that generates time-varying impulse response of local spreads to shocks in other euro area countries spreads. The GVAR framework is then applied to the analysis of the dynamic effects of fiscal stabilization packages on the cost of government borrowing and to the evaluation of the importance of potential contagion effects determining a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to a group of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo A. Favero, 2012. "Modelling and Forecasting Yield Differentials in the euro area. A non-linear Global VAR model," Working Papers 431, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:431
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    Cited by:

    1. D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
    2. Dieppe, Alistair & Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Marchiori, Luca & Grech, Owen & Albani, Maria & Lalouette, Laure & Kulikov, Dmitry & Papadopoulou, Niki & Sideris, Dimitris & Irac, Delphine & Gordo Mora, , 2015. "Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth," Occasional Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
    3. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    4. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2012. "Does the halo effect still hold? Implications for the euro-candidates from the analysis of the EA bond market - the crisis perspective," MF Working Papers 15, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 29 Aug 2012.
    5. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. António Afonso & Mina Kazemi, 2018. "Sovereign Bond Yields Spreads Spillovers in the EMU," Working Papers REM 2018/52, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. repec:ecb:ecbops:2014165 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2014. "Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates," MF Working Papers 18, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 30 Jan 2014.

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