Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad
Government bond spreads increased rapidly during the financial turmoil in the euro area. In general, government bond spreads in the euro area are attributed to solvency and liquidity risks and determinants thereof. This paper proposes the use of latent processes to model the time variation present in the evaluation of these determinants. In contrast to approaches using global measures like the US corporate bond spreads or short-term interest rates to approximate time variation, our model is also flexible enough to deal with the unfolding of the financial crisis. The findings suggest that the expected debt-to-GDP ratio explains a major part of the differences in bond yields in the euro area between 2003 and the unfolding of the financial crises. Coefficients for many determinants increased rapidly during the financial crises. Especially market capitalization gained relative importance in winter 2008/2009. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2012
Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:c/o Universität Wien, Betriebswirtschaftszentrum, Brünnerstrasse 72, A-1210 Wien
Phone: +43 01 4277 - 38052
Fax: +43 01 4277 - 38054
Web page: http://www.noeg.ac.at/index.php?lang=en
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/european+integration/journal/10663|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004.
"Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
- Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
- Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," CSEF Working Papers 126, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "The European Bond Markets Under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2007. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Working Papers 323, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2008. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2007. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CSEF Working Papers 181, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
- Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Jan J.G. Lemmen & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 1999. "Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 77-107, Winter.
- Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February.
- Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
- R. Jankowitsch & H. Mosenbacher & S. Pichler, 2006. "Measuring the liquidity impact on EMU government bond prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 153-169.
- Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:341-356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.