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Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy

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  • Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H.
  • Hüfner, Felix P.

Abstract

This study analyses whether expected budget deficits have an impact on interest rate swap spreads in France, Germany and Italy. We use monthly deficit forecasts from financial market participants to take the forward-looking behaviour of financial markets into account. Results of a SUR estimation show no significant impact of expected deficits on swap spreads over the whole sample period (1994-2004). However, we find an increase in market discipline for Germany and France since the signing of the Stability and Growth Pact, and for Germany also since the start of European monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2918
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19507/1/200440dkp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    2. Dirk Bleich & Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2012. "Monetary policy and oil price expectations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 969-973, July.
    3. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
    4. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    5. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf, 2012. "Monetary Policy Conditions in Spain Before and After the Changeover to the Euro: A Taylor Rule Based Assessment," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 8(1).
    6. António Afonso, 2011. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Post-Print hal-00719484, HAL.
    7. Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Moral Hazard and Bail-Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, August.
    8. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    9. Andrea Terzi, 2007. "WP 2007-4 Fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe: Revisiting the link with interest rates," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2007-4, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    10. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    11. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
    12. Csaba Csávás & Lóránt Varga & Csaba Balogh, 2008. "The forint interest rate swap market and the main drivers of swap spreads," MNB Occasional Papers 2008/64, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    13. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
    14. van Riet, Ad, 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    15. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    16. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Minor Nuisance Around Foreign Exchange Markets - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-32, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    17. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2015. "Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 3971-3993, August.
    18. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Inflation targeting makes the difference: Novel evidence on inflation stabilization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1092-1105.
    19. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    20. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 341-356, August.
    21. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Market Discipline Under A Politicised Multilateral Fiscal Rule - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-35, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    22. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
    23. Jalles, João Tovar & Karibzhanov, Iskander & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on the quality of private sector fiscal forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-201.
    24. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "Infation Targeting matters! - Novel evidence from 'ex ante' Taylor rules in emerging markets," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficits; interest rate swap spreads; EMU; Stability and Growth Pact;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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