Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia
The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from limited data availability, short time series and structural breaks. We propose a top-down stress test methodology that employs relatively limited information to overcome this data problem. Moreover, as credit growth in emerging economies tends to be rather volatile, we rely on dynamic approach projecting key balance sheet items. Application of our proposed stress test framework to the Russian banking sector reveals a high sensitivity of the capital adequacy ratio to the economic cycle that shows up in both of the two-year macroeconomic scenarios considered: a baseline and an adverse one. Both scenarios indicate the need for capital increase in the Russian banking sector. Furthermore, given that Russia’s banking sector is small and fragmented relative to advanced economies, the loss of external financing can cause profound economic stress, especially for medium-sized and small enterprises. The Russian state has a low public debt-to-GDP ratio and plays decisive role in the banking sector. These factors allow sufficient fiscal space for recapitalisation of problematic banks under both of our proposed baseline and adverse scenarios.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:||Feb 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11, pages 83-95.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006.
"Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Working Papers 0531, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Matthew T Jones & Graham L Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems; What to Do When the Governor Calls," IMF Working Papers 04/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Jokivuolle, Esa & Virolainen, Kimmo & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2008. "Macro-model-based stress testing of Basel II requirements," Research Discussion Papers 17/2008, Bank of Finland.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: is there a danger of contagion?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 211-229 Bank for International Settlements.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
- World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Financial Sector Assessment : A Handbook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7259.
- Vernikov, Andrei, 2009. "Russian banking : The state makes a comeback?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2008. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: an economic value and capital adequacy perspective," Bank of England working papers 339, Bank of England.
- Ian Levely, 2012. "Measuring Intermediate Outcomes of Liberia’s DDRR Program," Working Papers IES 2012/2, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
- Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
- Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts & Mostafa Tabbae, 2006. "Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing," DNB Working Papers 119, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Michael Boss & Martin Fenz & Johannes Pann & Claus Puhr & Martin Schneider & Eva Ubl, 2009. "Modeling Credit Risk through the Austrian Business Cycle: An Update of the OeNB Model," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 17, pages 85-101. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)