IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v57y2007i1-2p60-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)

Author

Abstract

The importance of credit-risk models has increased with the introduction of the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II). This paper follows Merton´s approach to structural analysis, toward default-rate modeling. A latent-factor model is introduced within this framework. Estimation of this model can help further our understanding of the relationship between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. The results have been used for stress testing the Czech banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:60-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/5_fau_1_2_07_00000000060.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2006. "Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-35, January.
    2. M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
    3. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    4. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Working Papers 0411, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    7. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    8. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    10. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    2. Jan Babecky & Sofia Bauducco & Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlata Komarkova & Jiri Podpiera & Christian Schmieder & Laurent Weill, 2009. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Financial and Global Stability Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 7, number rb07/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Jan Frait.
    3. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The Up-Coming Crisis and the Banking Sector in the Baltic States," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 269-291, September.
    4. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    5. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
    6. František Brazdik & Michal Hlavacek & Aleš Marsal, 2012. "Survey of Research on Financial Sector Modeling within DSGE Models: What Central Banks Can Learn from It," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 252-277, July.
    7. Roland Beck & Petr Jakubik & Anamaria Piloiu, 2015. "Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 525-550, July.
    8. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    9. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
    10. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    11. Petr Kadeřábek & Aleš Slabý & Josef Vodička, 2008. "Stress testing of probability of default of individuals," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(4), pages 340-355.
    12. Costeiu, Adrian & Neagu, Florian, 2013. "Bridging the banking sector with the real economy: a financial stability perspective," Working Paper Series 1592, European Central Bank.
    13. Zuzana Fungacova & Petr Jakubik, 2013. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 87-105, March.
    14. Ian Babetskii & Ales Bulir & Fabrizio Coricelli & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Ten Years of Inflation Targeting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 6, number rb06/1 edited by Ian Babetskii & Katerina Smidkova.
    15. Petr Kadeřábek & Aleš Slabý & Josef Vodička, 2008. "Stress Testing of Probability of Default of Individuals," Working Papers IES 2008/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    16. Karel Janda, 2009. "Bankruptcies With Soft Budget Constraint," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(4), pages 430-460, July.
    17. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    18. repec:agr:journl:v:6(595)(supplement):y:2014:i:6(595)(supplement):p:322-332 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Alena Bicakova & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl & Jiri Slacalek & Michal Slavik, 2007. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Fiscal Policy and its Sustainability," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 5, number rb05/2 edited by Ian Babetskii & Vladimir Bezdek.
    20. Ju, Yonghan & Jeon, Song Yi & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Behavioral technology credit scoring model with time-dependent covariates for stress test," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 910-919.
    21. Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms’ Default in the Czech Republic," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
    22. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Markus Schwaiger, 2007. "Stress Testing the Exposure of Austrian Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13, pages 115-134.
    23. Karel Janda, 2008. "Which Government Interventions Are Good in Alleviating Credit Market Failures?," Working Papers IES 2008/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    24. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; credit risk; default rate; latent-factor model; stress test;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:60-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.