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Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)

The importance of credit-risk models has increased with the introduction of the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II). This paper follows Merton´s approach to structural analysis, toward default-rate modeling. A latent-factor model is introduced within this framework. Estimation of this model can help further our understanding of the relationship between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. The results have been used for stress testing the Czech banking sector.

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Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
Pages: 60-78

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:60-78
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  1. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  2. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
  3. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
  4. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2002. "Procyclicality and the New Basel Accord: banks' choice of loan rating system," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  6. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  9. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0411, Banco de Espa�a.
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