The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector
This paper presents the construction of a new indicator (named the JT index) evaluating the economy´s financial stability, which is based on a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (the JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006. However, the JT index for 2007 and 2008 deteriorated what could be explained through global market turbulences while the further decrease in 2009 rather by the global recession. The used methodology for the construction of the JT index might be suitable for decision makers when evaluating the economy´s financial stability. Although our research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic idea might be easily applied to other countries as well.
Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3|
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic|
Web: http://www.vse.cz/pep/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joy, O. Maurice & Tollefson, John O., 1975. "On the Financial Applications of Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 723-739, December.
- James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
- Wiginton, John C., 1980. "A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 757-770, September.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
- D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
- Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
- Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
- Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
- repec:bla:joares:v:10:y:1972:i:1:p:167-179 is not listed on IDEAS
- David Durand, 1941. "Risk Elements in Consumer Instalment Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dura41-1, October.
- repec:bla:joares:v:4:y:1966:i::p:71-111 is not listed on IDEAS
- Edmister, Robert O., 1972. "An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 1477-1493, March.
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
- Edward Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-41, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- repec:bla:joares:v:9:y:1971:i:2:p:389-345 is not listed on IDEAS
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Santomero, Anthony M. & Vinso, Joseph D., 1977. "Estimating the probability of failure for commercial banks and the banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 185-205, October.
- repec:bla:joares:v:18:y:1980:i:1:p:109-131 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:bla:joares:v:22:y:1984:i::p:59-82 is not listed on IDEAS
- Altman, Edward I. & Eisenbeis, Robert A., 1978. "Financial Applications of Discriminant Analysis: A Clarification," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 185-195, March.
- Eisenbeis, Robert A, 1977. "Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 875-900, June.
- Edward I. Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- James Kolari & Michele Caputo & Drew Wagner, 1996. "Trait Recognition: An Alternative Approach to Early Warning Systems in Commercial Banking," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1415-1434, December.
- Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.