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The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector

Author

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  • Petr Jakubík
  • Petr Teplý

Abstract

This paper presents the construction of a new indicator (named the JT index) evaluating the economy´s financial stability, which is based on a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (the JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006. However, the JT index for 2007 and 2008 deteriorated what could be explained through global market turbulences while the further decrease in 2009 rather by the global recession. The used methodology for the construction of the JT index might be suitable for decision makers when evaluating the economy´s financial stability. Although our research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic idea might be easily applied to other countries as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:2:id:394:p:157-176
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    Cited by:

    1. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2017. "Time-varying Effects of Public Debt on the Financial and Banking Development in the Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms’ Default in the Czech Republic," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
    3. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, June.
    4. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, June.
    5. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:527:p:1-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice
      [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    7. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, June.
    8. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta, June.
    9. Milan Šimáček, 2012. "Indexy finančního stresu pro Českou republiku a Maďarsko
      [Financial Stress Indexes for the Czech Republic and Hungary]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(5), pages 614-634.
    10. Tereza Fišerová & Petr Teplý & David Tripe, 2015. "The Performance of Foreign-Owned Banks in Host Country Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, pages 538-561.
    11. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:527:p:1-23 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; bankruptcy prediction; logit analysis; corporate sector risk; JT index;

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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